Gates made his statement to Congress yesterday on his plan for defense spending with few surprises. Let’s revisit my predictions:

1. Some defense spending will remain strong, even as the budget shrinks. This will only be for certain mature programs and only in key democratic districts. 

Defense spending will increase by 4% in real dollars. That’s about par with inflation (depending on whose inflation numbers one uses), though smaller than the service chiefs asked for.

The F-35 program will increase. The tanker program survives. The Navy can keep its 11-carrier fleet and buy more F/A-18s. Its new destroy will be scaled back, not cut, and it can resume building Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. The Army’s future combat system will also be scaled back. The Marines will lose the new presidential helicopter program but, with the Army, will boost force strength. Special operations and intelligence assets also get a big boost.

Now its congresses turn. In the end they have the final say. I think they will go along with most (but not all) of Gates’ recommendations due to tremendous pressure from the White House. Any changes will be to align spending and programs with districts of the democratic majority. We will know for sure by fall of this year.

2. 'Big programs, small programs, nothing will be sacred. Expect early retirement for various weapon systems. This will not impact democratic districts. Don’t hold your breath on a new rescue helicopter unless the HH-47 wins. Parts of it are made in Murtha’s state of PA.

Murtha was out with knee surgery and the entire Air Force rescue helicopter went down in flames. In fact, only the Air Force took major force-wide hits. Only its tanker program made it out unscathed (the F-35 is a joint program with Navy, Marines and U.K.). The F-22 was terminated – no more will be built. The C-17 was terminated – no more will be built. Missile defense – gutted. The new bomber – scrapped. New transformational satellite program – scrapped. Over 200 front line fighters – retired. It was another bad day for the Air Force.

3. Rep. Barney Frank’s comment about a 25% cut in overall defense spending will come true, but not in the baseline budget. Expect the wartime supplemental spending to plummet as troops come home from Iraq.

Supplemental spending debate doesn’t begin in earnest until later this spring…more to follow here.

What do I think about all these changes Sec. Gates is making? I’m still digesting his proposals, but I don’t think he had much choice. I’ll discuss this in more detail later.

This weekend and over the next month they’ll send their high-powered lobbyist to gain assurances from their pet senators and congressmen that their key programs will remain safe from any future cuts.  Our legislators will try to put on their best face and tell them all is well. All the while they’ll quietly send their staffers to the Pentagon...Those staffers will tell the Pentagon budget planners…to start planning deep cuts. They’ll give these planners draconian bottom lines and tell them to meet them - period...Over the next few months rumors of the deep budget cuts will seep outside the Pentagon. Small programs, big programs – nothing will be sacred...The Air Force will get hit hardest since it’s currently the least favored branch among the political elites.... Don’t hold your breath on a new replacement rescue helicopter...Expect early retirement for various weapons systems...

Let’s see where we stand one month and over a trillion dollars later:

(Leaders) will assure defense contractors defense spending will remain strong: According to Rueters, "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gateson Tuesday struck an upbeat note about the future outlook for U.S. defense spending, citing strong bipartisan support for U.S. national security goals." 

Deep defense cuts: I guess Sec. Gates hasn't been talking to the movers and shakers in the upcoming Democratic congressional super-majority. Two weeks ago this story hit the papers:  "After the November election, Democrats will push for a second economic stimulus package that includes money for the states' stalled infrastructure projects, along with help paying for healthcare expenses, food stamps and extended unemployment benefits, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank said Thursday...(He) also called for a 25 percent cut in military spending, saying the Pentagon has to start choosing from its many weapons programs..."

Congress is already looking for offsets to pay for the bailout and stimulus packages.

 'Big programs, small programs, nothing will be sacred'…expect early retirement for various weapon systems’: According to Inside Defense and the Air Force Times, the service will cut over 300 frontline fighter aircraft by 2010, almost a decade ahead of schedule. This is about 15% of the services fighter force, significant by any standard.

Don’t hold your breath on a new rescue helicopter:  On 23 October the Washington Times reported the Air Force postponed awarding the CSAR-X helicopter until sometime next year, leaving it for the next presidential administration. The tanker is also now delayed until the next administration is seated.

1. After the election the Pentagon likely faces an openly hostile congress and administration in time of active war. Rep. Barney Frank’s 25% cut comment is a clear message of things to come.
2. Never has the Pentagon had to maintain a sustained forward force posture and active combat operations while America was so deep in debt (public and private).
3. Never has so much of that debt been held by potential hostile powers. He who holds the debt makes the rules.
4. Never has America experienced a deep recession as a consumer, not manufacturing or farming, economy. The Pentagon keeps many of America’s remaining heavy industry on life support, what happens to them in a shrinking economy and lower defense spending is uncertain.
5. The Pentagon has yet to factor in the new realities of global free trade into its acquisitions or defense posture. Its current budgeting and acquisitions framework hasn’t fundamentally changed since America was a creditor nation and General Motors ruled the world.
6. Never has the Pentagon had to rely of foreign sources, many potentially hostile for three critical items: funding (via investment in US debt), energy, and critical technologies. This is the true national security issue of our time.
7. What happens if we enter a period of increased inflation due to our current massive bailout and stimulus spending? This is a real possibility. A severely weakened dollar will discourage foreign (i.e. Chinese) investment in the debt & dollar. Inflation makes everything more expensive – like fuel for fighter jets or computer chips for guidance systems. A defense budget passed one year may assume a 5% inflation rate, but face 10% inflation when executed. Though the government doesn’t officially factor it in, energy is one of the biggest drivers for actual inflation.
8. Never has the Pentagon had to rely on an all-volunteer force during times of sustained combat operations. This has resulted in enormous personnel costs for a relatively small force. The only good news here is a poor economy makes for good recruiting and gives the Pentagon more flexibility in reigning in benefits.

All of these factors will come into play in the next 24 months and beyond to reshape how America defends herself and her global interests. I won’t venture anymore predictions other than hold on…its going to be a bumpy ride.

(Author's Note: I printed Part 4 prior to Part 5 for various reasons. If you are not associated with the military this may be a bit too technical. If you are associated with the military, however, any feedback would be greatly appreciated. (please!)  - Bull_67)  

   “America’s not funding us to be a large Air Force anymore.”- Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne, 19 September 2007

The Air Force is simultaneously getting smaller and busier. In doing so it's entering uncharted territory. Or is it really uncharted territory? For the Airmen who serve in low density/high demand (LDHD) weapon systems, smaller and busier has been ‘ops normal’ for some time.

In the late 1990s the Air Force concluded it lacked enough of certain weapon systems to adequately fill the new Air Expeditionary Force (AEF) deployment structure. These systems, which came to be known as LDHD, operate under different pressures and conditions than ‘right sized’ forces. As a result, observable behaviors and characteristics unique to these communities have emerged over time. In this paper, I lay out eleven of these unique traits.

These traits provide a vocabulary for awareness and understanding of why LDHD systems emerge, perpetuate, and behave in certain ways. This paper provides some tools for managing short term effects in LDHD organizations, and explores the implications of having significant numbers of weapon systems exhibiting these traits within the Air Force. 

Officially designated LDHD forces are figuratively the ‘canary in the coal mine’ . As the Air Force continues to ‘right size’ and taskings mount, Airmen should pay closer attention and draw lessons from what their LDHD brethren are experiencing.  

LDHD Defined.

 The Air Expeditioary Force(AEF) structure organizes forces around capabilities and provides deployment predictability, and fairness. Originally, it called for 90 days of temporary duty every 15 months.   In some cases, there were not enough of some systems to supply every AEF. These LDHD forces were called enablers.   The Joint Staff has officially recognized LDHD weapon systems since 1996  and attempted to manage them with the Global Military Force Policy (GMFP). This policy requires war fighting commanders request needed capabilities, not specific platforms. Annually, each service nominates its systems to be defined as LDHD under GMFP.

According to law:

 “High-demand, low-density military capability (forces are) combat, combat support or service support capability, unit, system, or occupational specialty that the Secretary of Defense determines has funding, equipment, or personnel levels that are substantially below the levels required to fully meet or sustain actual or expected operational requirements set by regional commanders.”

 This explanation says we don’t have enough, but enough of what? The Air Force has acknowledged several LDHD weapons systems, including RC-135 Rivet Joint, E-8 JSTARS, U-2, E-3 AWACS, HH-60G, and AC-130.

AEF deployments have increased to 120 days every 20 months and the force is still shrinking.With this in mind, many non-LDHD commanders will say they don’t have enough assets to do their mission. This alone, however, doesn’t make a weapon system LDHD.

11 Traits of an LDHD Force.

1. LDHD forces do not emerge by design, but underestimating demand, not providing adequate resources, or through management.

LDHD forces arise unintentionally, whether from underestimated demand, under-allocated resources, mismanaged programs, or a combination of all three. The most important thing to understand about demand is it an uncontrollable variable. ‘Density’ results from policy, programming and budgeting decisions, but ‘demand’ lies with the actions of our adversaries. Therefore, demand is often poorly forecast. The impact may not be apparent for years until events force a reassessment of accepted assumptions. Density is defined, demand depends.

Under-allocated resources are perhaps the most common reason LDHD forces emerge. Budgets are cut, programs are delayed, production lines prematurely close - the list goes on.

Sometimes LDHD systems emerge because they are mismanaged. A timely example is the F-22 Raptor. The Air Force states it requires over 381 planes. Policy makers concluded 183 will suffice.   Either senior Air Force officials have grossly miscalculated demand by a factor of two or an LDHD weapon system has been born; only time will tell.

Policymakers recognize there are not enough of these forces but choose to perpetuate the status quo.  

If a system is recognizably in short supply one would logically assume policymakers would act quickly to increase force strength. Unfortunately, in today’s grim budget realities this is not always true. Instead, policy makers often choose not to increase forces to meet demands. They may plan force increases, but don’t follow through. This usually remains the case until some event forces the issue.

The F-22 Raptor example applies here as well. Senior policymakers, not the Air Force, are quite satisfied with only 183 aircraft. However, the recent F-15 crash due to structural cracks resulted in the indefinite grounding of 40% of the F-15 fleet. This one event turned a normal mission area, air superiority/air dominance, into an LDHD mission area overnight. The status quo changed and may have reopened the case for buying new Raptors.

Most weapon systems can avoid from falling into the LDHD trap by policy makers consciously addressing traits 1 & 2. 

2. LDHD weapons systems are expensive, highly capable platforms which are few in numbers and difficult, if not impossible, to replace.  

LDHD systems fall into two broad categories: antiques and exotics.

Antiques are no longer built. Like a classic car, once wrecked it’s gone forever; and just like an old car, sustainment becomes increasingly expensive. Updating antique systems is also very expensive. For example, the C-5 fleet is undergoing upgrade and life extension modifications at a current cost of $83 million per aircraft.  If not replaced in a timely manner, right-sized antique systems may become LDHD through wear and tear. The recent F-15 grounding is not the only example of this. The C-130 fleet instantly, if temporarily, became an LDHD asset when in 2005 about 100 C-130Es where grounded due to wing cracks. 

While exotics may have open production lines, they’re so expensive or complex they are only built at low rates.  For example, it takes 30 months to make a single F-22. If we quickly needed another 180 F-22s we wouldn’t get them for quite some time. 

Antiques and exotic numbers are static or cannot be quickly surged. They may not be classified as LDHD for current requirements but may quickly become LDHD in the event of unexpected and sustained contingencies. As we will see, this contributes to trait.  

3. When increasing resources or decreasing demands is not possible, LDHD forces compensate in other ways. 

Translation: Doing more with less.

LDHD compensatory behavior occurs at the highest levels. GMFP itself is a compensatory measure. It establishes a protocol to help manage the personnel tempo (PERSTEMPO) of highly tasked units.    Like other compensatory measures, it eases the pain but doesn’t fix the underlying problem.

The Air Force often compensates in lieu of aggressively increasing numbers of LDHD weapon systems. To gain efficiencies with the service devises other options such as increasing simulator capability and capacity, increasing manpower-to-platform ratios, using suitable substitutes, using retention tools such as bonuses, and using more reserve forces.   Efficiency is generally a good thing but can sometimes have unintended consequences, as we will see when reserves are routinely used as operational forces. I will discuss this more under trait 10.

Management tools such as Total Quality Management and Lean processes naturally gain momentum in LDHD organizations. In many cases these programs are successful, resulting in smaller but more capable forces.

An emerging compensatory behavior is outsourcing to private contractors. While a mainstay for missions like logistics support and security, this phenomenon is just starting to creep into air operations.  We have yet to see long term consequences. 

Unfortunately, proponents of efficiency processes forget that the military, unlike industry, has very different funding processes. Industry can better flex to dynamic market realities and tap new resources. Militaries, however, exist within government budgeting realities. In government, the reward for doing more with less is getting less to do more.

Another compensatory behavior is leveraging new technologies to increase the performance of existing forces. Stealth and information technology are two good examples. The downside is that these forces become very expensive. This is a driving factor in trait 3 and contributes to traits 5, 6, and 7.

4. LDHD forces rely on precision (or precision-effects) instead of mass.

As LDHD forces become more sophisticated and efficient, they come to rely on precision effects instead of using mass to achieve desired outcomes. AFDD-1 defines “precision engagement” as the ability to command, control, and employ forces to cause specific strategic, operational, or tactical effects.

Precision and survivability are inseparable. The more effective a given weapon system is, the fewer are needed. This means not only are fewer munitions required to achieve the desired effect, but fewer platforms are required to reach the objective. If fewer are needed, then fewer are bought and retained. When combined with trait 4, this drives LDHD systems into downward spirals to the point where mass is no longer an option. Precision/precision-effect is no longer just one of many tools, it’s the only option. The weapon system becomes too rare and expensive to accept any losses. Systems such as the E-3, E-8 and the B-2 fit this description.

Originally, the Air Force planned to buy 132 B-2 Spirit bombers. As originally designed, it had only half the ‘precision’ equation, survivability, as it could only deliver non-precision conventional bombs or nuclear weapons.  Eventually, only 21 B-2s entered service.  Now the Spirit can deliver precision guided munitions, adding precision to survivability. With only 21 bombers, the B-2 cannot achieve mass as a delivery platform. In other words, if for some reason its stealth capability were compromised it could not use strength of numbers to reach its objective. Precision and survivability are the only options. 

AFDD-1 also says, “Mass is an effect that air and space forces achieve through effectiveness of attack, not just (emphasis added) overwhelming numbers.” Yes, but sometimes mass means just that, overwhelming numbers.

Trait 5 logically combines with trait 3 to create the next trait.  

6. LDHD forces are not optimized for defensive operations.  

LDHD forces are delicate, they lack mass (as measured by sheer numbers of weapons platforms) and depth (as measured by the ability sustain and regenerate losses).

LDHD weapons systems create LDHD, or narrow, training pipelines and logistics chains. They are pared and tailored to meet the needs of small communities with few platforms. Training pipelines are discussed further under trait 8.

These forces have narrow logistics chains since they are few in number, such as exotics. In the case of antiques, they are no longer built and any production is limited to component replacement parts. At this point trait 4 becomes a factor. Logistical compensatory behavior seeks to shift supply costs to commercial suppliers through strategic sourcing initiatives such as direct-vendor delivery and vendor-managed inventory. These techniques reduce inventory costs by reducing inventories themselves, relying on “just in time” deliveries. Traditionally, large military inventories protect against uncertainty by forming a strategic reserve. These practices yield measurable savings, but remove mass from logistic chains, making them even more narrow and susceptible to external forces out of military planners’ control. 

Unfortunately, this very narrowness makes these systems easier to target. They are few in number and often consolidated in centralized locations. Centralization and narrowness combine to present fewer “critical nodes” for potential enemies to target. Antique weapon systems are critical nodes as adversaries need only target the system itself.  Worse yet, narrowness and centralization make LDHD weapon systems uncomfortably susceptible to weapons of mass destruction. 

 LDHD platforms are sometimes lynchpin systems, or critical enablers for other non-LDHD weapon systems. Most C2ISR systems, like the E-3 AWACS, are examples of this. When a lynchpin system is lost it can simultaneously and seriously degrade numerous other systems.

Age is a threat. Being delicate, LDHD forces are highly susceptible to random events. The F-15 and C-130 examples show how unexpected technical problems can be just as disastrous as enemy action. Nature can also inflict disproportionate damage on an LDHD force, such as a tornado sweeping across a ramp of irreplaceable antiques.  

LDHD forces cannot sustain losses; they fare poorly in defensive operations or attrition warfare. They make enticing targets for potential adversaries and are susceptible to Murphy’s Law.

7. LDHD forces are inherently offensive in nature.  

If a force is not best suited for defense it had better be good at offense. Weapon systems achieving precision-effects and emphasizing platform-based survivability are, by nature, good at taking the fight to the enemy.  In other words, the more survivable a given platform, the better suited it is to attack. This is a natural outcome of traits 4 and 5, which create effective and efficient weapon systems. They are ‘born to attack,’ or enable other systems to attack. This may be why the Air Force, which believes airpower is inherently offensive, has many LDHD systems.  This, however, is only half of the offensive equation.

Being delicate, LDHD forces may not survive an attack and still be viable. Traits 3 and 6 reinforce the old cliché the best defense is a good offense. Since LDHD forces are not suited for sustained conflicts or attrition combat, adversaries must be defeated in short order.  Optimally, these forces are best used preemptively.  

8. LDHD personnel are highly trained specialists requiring extensive training and are difficult to replace.

As briefly mentioned in trait 6, LDHD forces have narrow training pipelines. They cannot readily surge to meet increased personnel demands.

First, they’ve been tailored to meet smaller production quotas. LDHD weapon systems breed LDHD training units.

Second, they are often highly selective, draw from small pools of qualified candidates who are subjected to long periods of expensive training, and possibly have high washout rates. Special operations forces are good examples.

Third, because they are part of an LDHD community, there’s no excess of platforms or personnel. Training surges usually occur during contingencies, when aircrew and aircraft are needed in the field. It’s therefore unlikely that training units will get additional resources when they need them most. This scenario played out in the buildup to OIF, when there where no E-3 AWACS to spare. During that time, when training was critically needed, no extra aircraft were available.  

Trait 8 stands apart from trait 6 due to its dynamic relationship with the next trait.  

9. LDHD forces have greater difficulty retaining personnel.

High workload is a natural result of high demand. There are many ways to measure workload, one of which is PERSTEMPO, the amount of time personnel engage in duties that preclude spending off-duty time at home station. However, workload is not a good indicator of an LDHD weapon system. First, there isn’t a standard PERSTEMPO definition agreed upon by all the services. Second, most commanders probably think their units are overworked. 

Wouldn’t high workload impact retention? The answer is yes. A 1999 RAND study found “further additions of long or hostile duty…incrementally reduce(d) reenlistment propensity…” If such a relationship exists then shouldn’t there be an objective metric? Follow the money. 

Weapon systems with high levels of career fields receiving reenlistment and retention bonuses are probably LDHD. For example, 27% of the enlisted career specialties receiving selective reenlistment bonuses are associated with LDHD systems, such as flight engineer, pararescue, and airborne battle manager.  In fact, retirees and reserve component members from LDHD weapon systems can switch to active duty and earn a hefty bonus. Another indicator is the presence of mandatory retention measures to prevent members from separating or retiring.

There are always exceptions. Some stressed units have good retention. Intangibles, like unit esprit de corps, can keep people in the fight when incentives can’t.

Combined, traits 8 and 9 indicate brittleness unique to LDHD forces.  Their training pipelines are narrow, they cannot effectively surge when necessary, and they have difficulty retaining people. Simply put, if you use them too much, you’ll break them.

10. LDHD forces have fewer reserves of equipment and personnel; if they exist, they are operational reserves.  

“It's [active component] simply too shortly manned to do the many tasks that are out there and do them in a way that doesn't put stress on both the active force and the reserve force.”

-         Rep. John McHugh, House Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee Chairman May 2005

Trait 4 states LDHD commanders compensate for not having enough of what they need.  One way is to use strategic reserves for current requirements. This is like paying today’s bills with savings.

As demand increases, reserves are employed with increasing frequency as operational reserves, forces used regularly to support active duty military operations at home and abroad. If a community cannot meet sustained AEF obligations without the reserve component, then it has an operational reserve.

Logically, operational reserves have higher PERSTEMPO.  Therefore, traits 8 & 9 would increase reserve component brittleness as retention and turnover place further stress on narrow training pipelines.

Sometimes, reserve forces are disbanded altogether so needed equipment can be used by active forces. In the long run this conversion strategy, cannibalization, hurts both the reserve and active components.

Reserve manpower is usually lost or transferred to other weapon systems – it rarely converts directly to the active component. This further stresses narrow training pipelines, per trait , as they struggle to increase active manpower to fill the converted reserve platforms. Fewer reserve units now exist to retain separating active duty personnel, making Trait 9 even worse. Subsequently, their experience is lost.

If a weapon system has no strategic or operational reserve, or is cannibalizing its reserves then it has attained operational overreach. This exacerbates Trait 3 and 6. These forces may be overwhelmed in the event of unexpected and sustained contingencies - a rainy day comes and the savings account, the strategic reserve, has been spent.  

11. LDHD forces are risk averse. 

No man is worth his salt who is not ready at all times to risk his body, to risk his well being, to risk his life, in a great cause."
   - Theodore Roosevelt 

More so than properly balanced forces, LDHD communities foster heightened cultures of risk management. LDHD commanders are understandably reluctant to risk these precious assets. Risk management is a cornerstone in any military organization, but LDHD communities sometimes take it a step further and become risk averse. Risk aversion surfaces operationally, culturally, and strategically.  

Operational risk aversion manifests itself with several behaviors. On their own, these behaviors are not always wrong, but in risk averse organizations they are often applied inappropriately. First, the ‘most-conservative response rule’ (always follow the most conservative course of action) is usually taken, even when other properly risk-managed courses of action would be more effective. Next, decisions and subsequent actions are delayed until every possible variable is known, considered, and weighed, even in time critical situations. Decision authority is often pushed to higher levels, even when not appropriate.

Often regulatory overhead increases to the point where instructions become overly detailed and inflexible. In extreme situations, decisions may be delayed to the point of self-imposed operational paralysis.

Culturally risk averse organizations can no longer find creative ways to meet mission demands. They operate in ‘survival mode’ with fatigued personnel unwilling to allocate precious resources to effect change, no matter how promising. As these organizations become more conservative, there are fewer incentives for change.  Finally, communication breaks down as PERSTEMPO increases; time and opportunities to exchange ideas decrease as workload increases; and creative thinking withers.

Long-term planning suffers in creatively barren organizations. Strategically risk averse units become stagnant, focus on immediate goals and are less receptive to new ideas. At this point an LDHD organization can no longer compensate as detailed in trait 4 and is in true crisis. When taken to an extreme, these organizations may become risk intolerant - in practice they accept no risk except those explicitly defined in regulatory guidance.  In such cases, personal initiative and autonomy are discouraged in all instances, even combat. 

Using the 11 Traits.

Unlike the official static definition, these traits are comprehensive, dynamic, and interrelated. But what good are they? First, they give Airmen, especially those in non-designated LDHD weapon systems, awareness of a problem. Because that’s exactly what LDHD is: a problem.

Awareness is necessary for understanding. These traits provide a vocabulary to understand why and how LDHD forces behave the way they do.

With awareness and understanding, commanders can then manage the acute effects inherent to LDHD systems. For starters, commanders can identify the policies which create and perpetuate their weapon system’s LDHD status. They can also accurately quantify weapon system delicateness and brittleness; good metrics are critical when requesting additional resources. Commanders can also gain organizational and technological efficiencies without falling into the trap of increasing system delicateness. Policy makers can reduce weapons system brittleness by bolstering training pipelines and aggressively addressing retention. Finally, commanders can avoid the risk-aversion trap by reevaluating decision making and risk management processes. All of these are short-term fixes and are an extension of trait 4. They don’t solve the chronic problem.

Sometimes, there’s no suitable substitute for having more. The only real fix for chronic LDHD weapon systems is to increase force strength or decrease demand, and decreasing demand is not always an option. Why should policy makers concern themselves with this if they’ve accepted LDHD forces as a fact of life?

The more LDHD weapon systems a force has, the more that force is in a state of strategic overreach. The Global War on Terror (GWOT) is increasing pressure on both LDHD and non-LDHD communities. Now the Air Force is shrinking, cutting both personnel and weapon systems under the Force Shaping initiative.  As end-strength glides to 316,000 and the GWOT continues unabated, Airmen serving in weapon systems not officially defined as LDHD will find they share more and more in common with their LDHD brethren. Unabated, it becomes systemic and the entire service will begin to exhibit LDHD traits, becoming an LDHD Air Force. Such an air force would be overextended and highly vulnerable.

“Therefore, a smaller army that is inflexible will be captured by a larger one.”

- Sun Tzu

Conclusion

These 11 traits are just that, traits, not quantifiable metrics. They are theories, not laws, of how these organizations behave.  Overworked units, with or without an LDHD designation, need a lexicon from which to work. This conceptual framework gives form and voice to what many Airmen are experiencing but haven’t been able to express. In this light I hope this will help readers see if their weapon system is effectively LDHD or not.

As stewards of American airpower every Airman must look to the future. For those finding themselves in LDHD organizations, it’s important not only to be aware of the reasons and implications of being in an overextended weapon system, but what can be done about it. With awareness comes responsibility. In this paper, I detail some measures commanders can implement at the unit level[, but the real work is at the policy-making level. The Air Force has been at war for 17 years and is approaching its smallest force level since 1947.    This alone justifies more detailed studies on the long term health, culture, and viability of LDHD communities. More information is needed if we are to avoid becoming an LDHD Air Force.

I hope this generates open discussion and dialogue about what happens when too few have been asked to do too much, with too little, for too long.

REGARDING MANPOWER & ACCOUNTABLITY…

Congress just announced its new defense budget and guess what’s missing? About 11,500 Airmen. The Air Force is only authorized 317,050 manpower positions, not the 328,600 promised by Secretary of Defense Gates. This is because someone sort of ‘forgot’ to ask congress for the additional cash. Really, someone actually forgot to ask.

No big deal, at least according to service officials. In time of war there isn’t an ‘end strength’ cap, so they can keep to positions…if they can find the money. I doubt congress will be very generous after dropping over $700 billion on bad loans this weekend. Many not know this, but even before the massive bailout plan the defense budget was already slated to shrink. According to InsideDefense.com the White House “assumed the base budget -- adjusted for inflation -- will decline in FY-10 and continue to shrink through FY-13…projected ‘negative growth’ in defense spending.” No, the only way we’ll get cash for bodies is to take it out of hide. This means cutting other programs, but what’s left to cut? 

In what is being hailed as ‘great leadership’ Gen Schwartz spoke at the 2008 Air & Space Conference demanding greater accountability in ‘all matters large and small.’ I think someone forgetting to ask for money for 11,500 bodies qualifies as a large matter.

REGARDING ACQUISITIONS…

In the same Air Force Time article there was a little blurb at the end stating congress is directing the service to keep 74 retired KC-135 tankers ‘ready to fly.’ The Shreveport Times reported on 16 September the service is considering starting the new tanker bidding process anew.  These two items, in technical terms, are known as ‘Bad Ju Ju.’ They mean don’t hold you breath on a new tanker.

The CSAR-X Air Force Helicopter program continues to flounder. This is from the 18 September Wall Street Journal:

The Pentagon may hold off on awarding a $15 billion U.S. Air Force rescue-helicopter contract this fall if it is likely that the losing bidders could successfully protest the decision for a third time, the Pentagon's top weapons buyer said Wednesday.

During an interview, John Young, the Defense Department's top weapons buyer, said he had no reason right now to believe the selection won't pass muster, but his office isn't taking any chances. "If we think there's risk there, it won't go forward," he said.

The Air Force can’t buy satellites either. According to the 22 September Bloomberg.com the awarding of the Transformational Communications Satellite has been delayed again. It was originally slated for launch in 2009. They’ll be lucky for a 2015 launch date now. According to Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions John Young, “(The Air Force is) playing budget games'' … ``We are letting budget processes deter efficient execution of acquisition programs that are trying to meet (valid needs).”

No tanker, no helicopter, no satellites. No future?

REGARDING COMBAT OPERATIONS…

A few days ago I predicted the bailout plan would have dire implications for defense spending, including sustaining combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Apparently, I’m not alone in that assessment. This comes from the 27 September San Diego Union-Tribune:

In an interview, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said a precipitous withdrawal could have consequences for the country and the region that everyone would regret afterward.

China just successfully completed its first spacewalk mission. NASA will retire the space shuttle in about 36 months. The US will have no manned space launch vehicle for the foreseeable future and will hitch rides with our dear friends the Russians.

PARTING THOUGHTS…

Is anyone paying attention? Does anyone get it?  I don’t think so. At the recent Air and Space Conference all the service’s 4-star generals held an open forum. You can read the transcript here. To summarize, they said their systems are old and they need more money. Agreed. Then moderator asked them ‘if you had one more dollar to spend, what would you spend it on?” Each general responded with an item important to his command. 

It seems to me they are unable to spend the money they have right now. Literally unable. What good are billions of dollars if you can’t successfully bid a contract?

Last week the US Government absorbed almost a trillion dollars of the most noxious corporate debt imaginable. To put it in perspective, the government has an annual operating budget of about three trillion dollars and only takes in about 2.7 trillion in revenue. This new debt is equivalent to almost three annual defense budgets! Overnight, the US federal debt leapt by at least a ten percent. Whatever budget estimates and expectations Pentagon leadership had up to this point can be thrown out. It’s a new fiscal ball game.

In my article, “Entitlements Threaten Defense Spending” (Townhall Magazine, September 2008) I likened entitlement spending, like Medicare, to a tsunami of red ink poised to crush the defense budget. With this week’s unprecedented corporate bailout packages our nation effectively ran out to meet that giant wave.  If the republic is to survive something will have to give.

That something will be defense, the biggest slice of the non-discretionary federal budget. Congress and the next president will have to cut federal spending in order to service this new debt. If they don’t, they risk potentially destroying America’s currency and credit rating – bad, very bad. 

Those staffers will tell the Pentagon budget planners (those working on something called the ‘POM’) to start planning deep cuts. They’ll give these planners draconian bottom lines and tell them to meet them - period. The planners will start a series of budget drills and the real fun begins.

Over the next few months rumors of the deep budget cuts will seep outside the Pentagon. Small programs, big programs – nothing will be sacred. The defense budget will be so different next year it as to be almost unrecognizable.

The Air Force will get hit hardest since it’s currently the least favored branch among the political elites. Since the new aerial tanker was punted to the next administration it’s uniquely vulnerable. I believe by this time next year it will be on indefinite hold and some token funds will be thrown at the old KC-135 to extend its life a few more years.  Don’t hold your breath on a new replacement rescue helicopter. I believe that program is doomed now. Expect early retirement for various weapons systems those with high operating costs, perhaps like the B-1 bomber.  

I cannot speak to the specifics of the other services, but they’ll get hit hard, too. Even the Army and the Marines, the most engaged in combat operations, will feel the heat. It won’t just be weapons acquisition programs, either. Personnel program cuts will be close behind.

I’m not talking about tweaks in the system, but sudden and draconian cuts. It will start with pronouncements on cutting travel costs. Then they’ll cut medical costs in new and painful ways. Tricare will eventually pay pennies on the dollar as co-pays for dependant medical care skyrockets. There will be drastic rollbacks in retiree medical benefits and huge shake-ups of the retirement system itself. Then the real cuts will begin.

The Navy and Air Force will resume their downward force cuts to unprecedented levels, perhaps in the range of 250,000 for each service. The additional forces added to the Marines and Army since 2003 will be rescinded. There may even be serious consideration of consolidating the services. I believe in 3-5 years we’ll find the military 25% smaller…at least.

With all these force cuts, how will we fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

We won’t. With this new, staggering debt load members of both political parties will accelerate our departure from Iraq and even Afghanistan, regardless of the political and military consequences. Only a token naval and air power component will remain in the Gulf Region to protect the oil. Expect withdrawal of forces from most of the Pacific and Europe as well.

Happening now somewhere deep in the Kremlin basement…

An old man, dressed in a dated brown suit, slowly walks down a dimly lit hallway. His footsteps, steady and heavy, echo hollowly against bare cement. Rows of faded ribbons and medals hang from his chest, proudly topped with a Soviet flag lapel pin. He carries a newspaper folded neatly under his arm. Every few paces he emerges into ruddy yellow light cast from bare light bulbs. The harsh light hardens his granite face and reflects off a balding head. Each light dimly illuminates photos of forgotten military men, stern heroes of a receding age. He comes to a vault-like metal door covered in chipped green paint. Wrinkled hands search empty pockets for a long-unused key. He scowls and softly mutters obscenities.

I’ve come all this way and forgot the damn key!

Desperate, he tries the door knob. The heavy chamber door cracks open, sending a ray of soft orange light into the hallway.

“It’s open,” comes a deep, ancient voice.

Surprised and curious, the old man pushes the door open all the way. The room is large, the air is stale. The faint odor conjures strong memories and they rush over him with unexpected power. He steadies himself against the door and slowly takes in the room. Other than a thick layer of dust, the room is unchanged, frozen in time.

The walls are lined with maps from a lost world. Each is blanketed with labels proclaiming the locations and strength long mothballed air armies and defenses. Chairs and tables were right where he last remembered them, as if waiting for their analysts to return. Only the paper was gone, but its dry, stale smell remained. Ancient computers lined one wall. Without magnetic tape reels they looked like eyeless robots.

They might as well have been blind, they couldn’t help us see our own doom, he thinks.

In the center of the room sits another old man. He is dressed in a black suit, but only a Soviet lapel pin rest upon his narrow chest. A well-worn cane rests against an outstretched leg. A broad smile and twinkling eyes lift his sagging face.

 “Sergey! I…I…how long have you been here?” says the old man standing at the door, flabbergasted. 

The man in black gently motions to a half-full bottle of vodka and two glasses on the bare table in front of him.

“It feels like 20 years. Come and sit with me, Leonid, I’ve been waiting. I’m sorry, but I broke the seal of the vodka. I’ve always been a little impatient,” He motions to his leg and cane self-consciously, “Please forgive me for not getting up to greet you properly, but it took everything out of me just getting down here.”

Leonid comes forward and clasps his old friend’s hand, “This is a pleasant, if not suspicious, surprise.” He raises a bushy eyebrow at the empty chair and vodka, “How did you know I would be here? No…stop. Don’t tell me. I should know better than ask an old spy about his craft.”

Sergey laughs deeply, which quickly turns to a fit of coughing. It takes a few minutes for him to catch his breath, “It warms my heart to see you, but don’t make me laugh too hard or it might stop! Anyway, it wasn’t hard to deduce you would be here today. You air force types are predictable.”

Leonid settles into the folding wooden chair across the table across from Sergey and tosses his paper onto the bare table. It’s the New York Times, folded over to expose a small, deeply buried, article.

“The US tanker program is delayed again. The Secretary of Defense has stripped control of the program from the service. It may be another year before a winner is selected, if ever.”

Sergey smiles and pours both generous shots of Vodka, they raise their glasses. They smile broadly at each other and tap glasses in a dull clink.

“Success,” says Sergey.

“Success,” responds Leonid.

They down their vodka in one gulp and sit in silence. Sergey contemplates his empty glass while Leonid’s eyes roam around the room. Over 20 years ago intelligence analysts and staff officers busily filled its spaces, assessing NATO and America’s ability to penetrate Soviet air defenses. Specifically, they were tasked to identify and exploit weaknesses in the American Air Force. Leonid was the senior air officer and overall director, Sergey was his KGB counterpart. Together, they covertly plotted the destruction of the mighty American Air Force.

Leonid breaks the silence, “I have not returned here since they shut us down. I thought I still had my key, but I must have misplaced it.”

Sergey doesn’t look up, “I come every year on the anniversary of the program. It may sound pathetic, but it was my finest hour. It’s all been downhill since. I asked Vladimir for a job, but he doesn’t return my calls. Ungrateful punk! I taught him everything he knows.” 

“I am sorry old friend, you deserve better. If there is anything I can do…” Leonid shrugs.

Sergey waves his hand dismissively, “I have a pension and a few investments (and probably drink to much), but I’ll be fine.”

The mood lightens as Leonid recharges both their glasses, “A toast to Sasha!”

They raise their glasses and say together, “Sasha!”

“One day,” Sergey proclaims, “history will give him the credit he deserves. He was the greatest intelligence analyst ever: Soviet, American, British…it doesn’t matter. I only wish he had been an equally good operative.”

“Do not blame yourself, friend. You did your duty sending him into the field, he did his duty by going. Such is the price patriots must pay.”  

Together, they drift back to another world, reliving old times and secret deeds few witnessed and even fewer live to remember.

Sergey begins the journey, “I remember when I first met you. I thought you were a cocky bomber pilot.”

Leonid laughs, “No offense, but I thought KGB types were slime. And I thought Sasha was a…I think the American word is ‘geek.”

Sergey gently chuckles, “No offense taken, old friend. I know KGB types are slime. Ahh, geek, yes, an appropriate word. He was a geek, a wonderful, brilliant geek. Slime, cocky and geek…we three misfits made a good team, eh?”

“No, Sergey, we made history! Sasha’s brainchild is alive and well, slowly and steadily eroding the once great American Air Force. I don’t need classified intelligence reports to see its effectiveness. I only have to read the western news and defense magazines.” He waves his craggy hand dismissively, “I like paper. I have no use for the internet. Click, click click, it’s so impersonal. I read stories like this one about the tanker and shake my head in disbelief. They haven’t started a single successful major weapons program since our plan went into effect. It’s taken them over twenty years to field the F-22. The old B-52 is still their mainstay bomber! We did it, Sergey,” he taps the paper for effect, “and we’re still doing it.”

“Sometimes I can’t believe it myself Leonid. Did you know the American Air Force cannot even buy an updated version of an old helicopter without years of delays? Is this the same air force which put hundreds of F-15s into the skies less than a decade after they saw our Mig-25 thunder over Moscow? I remember the look on your face when you talked about the F-15,” Sergey laughs, “You were terrified.”

“And rightly so! That thing would have made mincemeat of my bombers. We had nothing to challenge it. The Bekka Valley proved me right! I was as equally concerned when you brought me the intelligence on the F-117 and B-2. I knew our entire air defense system was instantly worthless. The American Army and Navy could be dealt with; only their air force could lay our Motherland bare!” Leonid pounds his fist on the table for emphasis, almost spilling the vodka.

“Careful, old bear! I only brought one bottle. You haven’t changed, passionate as usual. Sasha calmed you down, though.”

“Not at first he didn’t! He’d only been on the project for one week when I almost took his head off! I asked him for an analysis of how quickly our design bureaus could field an interceptor and detection system to counter their stealth technology. He comes back that day and says very calmly, ‘Comrade Colonel, we cannot counter their stealth technology. We cannot counter it now, in ten years, or in 50 years.’ I was furious!”

Sergey laughs and wags his finger accusingly, “I seem to remember your response…you almost shot him!”

Leonid crosses his arms and looks defensive, “No, I didn’t. I just wanted to emphasize my point.”

“It didn’t faze him, did it Leonid? He just kept talking. I remember the way your face slackened and then your eyes lit up with understanding at the words he spoke…”

Their conversation gives life to a long dead room, taking them back to that day 23 years ago. Around the old men ghosts of long gone Soviet air defense and long range aviation officers emerge, pouring over charts and intelligence reports. They go unnoticed by the old men talking of yesteryear. The shades study maps of revived NATO forces defending Western Europe. A modernized US Navy encircles the beleaguered Soviet Bloc. American bombers equipped with new cruise missiles roam the globe unchallenged, protected by far-flung fighter bases. Blue pins dot Europe denoting Pershing II missiles which the Soviets can’t counter. The Fulda Gap is now reinforced with freshly built F-16s and A-10s, ready to destroy what was once considered unstoppable Soviet armor. The analysts fret over reports of American made Stinger missiles ravaging Soviet airpower in Afghanistan. Men in civilian clothes read computer printouts showing the American economy exploding while the Soviet economy collapses. In the corner a young lieutenant, a recently assigned errand boy, listens to a bootleg cassette tape of “Thriller” on a clunky Sony Walkman. Eyes closed, he is oblivious to the drama everyone else in the room is witnessing.

Leonid (younger, thinner, and with more hair) has his service pistol aimed at the head of a young man in rumpled civilian clothes. The young man looks a little like John Lennon. He pushes up his glasses and confidently addresses Leonid.

“You can shoot me if you like, Comrade Colonel, but it will not change the fact, even if we could keep up with the West’s technological advancements (and we can’t) we unequivocally cannot convert our technology to military power at anywhere near their breakneck pace. They have perfected what Eisenhower called the ‘military, industrial complex.’ We have a conversion problem, sir. If we counter stealth, they’ll produce a countermeasure faster than we recognize we’ve been outflanked. They can draw on the emerging global technology market. We can’t because we’re isolated. We fall further behind every day. However, it doesn’t mean we don’t have options. If you put your gun away, Colonel, I can explain those options.”

“You have 3 minutes,” Leonid warned, angry at this kid’s arrogance. He put his pistol back in its holster. Everyone in the room resumed breathing and went about their work.

“I only need one minute. We cannot match the Americans head-to-head. More importantly, we shouldn’t even try. If we do, we’ll play into their hands and they’ll spend us into our grave. I ask you, sir, to consider a radically different and much cheaper approach. You are a pilot, Comrade Colonel, so I’ll put it in words you can understand.

American fighter pilots talk about getting inside your opponents decision making cycle, they call it the OODA loop, which means ‘Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act’. The United States has a very tight research, development and acquisition cycle, fueled by vast quantities of free-market cash. Remember, they went from a speech about going to the moon to actually arriving there in less than 8 years. What if, however, we throw a wrench in their OODA loop?”

Leonid was intrigued. Unobserved in a dim corner a younger and darker Sergey listened. He brought Sasha into the project after reading his dossier.  He’d let this conversation play out, confident of its outcome.

Sasha moved over to the table in the center of the room. He rolled out several pieces of paper and leaned over them, drawing Leonid’s attention to key documents.

“The Americans are reorganizing their military in something called ‘The Goldwater-Nichols Act.” Operationally, it’s brilliant. Logistically, it’s severely flawed. American newspapers and television make a great deal over Pentagon waste. They love to talk about $500 dollar toilet seats and $100 hammers. Of course their military acquisitions system is inefficient, what government process isn’t? They hope this reorganization will solve this. I contend it will have the opposite effect. It has the potential to bring the American acquisition system to its knees…with just a little help from us, of course.”

Leonid wanted to hear more, but hid his growing enthusiasm. There was something about where this young man was going which made sense.

“Go on.”

“Right now, each of their military branches can define their own requirements and, if congress approves, go out and buy their own equipment. Yes, it’s somewhat inefficient as of creates unnecessary duplication and hinders joint operations. Hereafter, weapon systems, like fighters and bombers, will have to meet rigid joint requirements and approvals. They’ve just added additional layers of bureaucracy, time, paperwork, and the most critical element of all …expense! It greatly expands their OODA loop and slows their ability to adapt.” Sasha leaned forward, smiled, and quietly whispered to Leonid, “Sir, it makes them more like us!”

Sergey emerged from the shadows, hands in the pockets of his black leather coat “Leonid, there’s more. He’s only scratched the surface.”

“You knew about this?” Leonid said, dismayed.

“Of course,” Sergey said irately, “Would you expect anything less?!”

Sasha continued, speaking quickly and passionately, “If we act quickly we can place operatives in sensitive posts in the Pentagon and Capitol Hill. They will plant a few more…uh…‘details’ into the legislation. This bill is poison, we only need to make it a more effective poison. I think we can stretch their major weapon system acquisition time out to 10, maybe 15 years from its current 5 to 8. If the Americans are slowed down it gives us time to catch up.”

Sasha shuffled the papers and came up with some charts, “ I call this plan Operation CHOLESTEROL. It aggravates the inherent flaws in Goldwater-Nichols by clogging the healthy pace of American military acquisitions with bureaucratic fat. We will make their military heart beat harder and harder for the same amount of work.”

Sergey chimed in again, “This will aggravate a looming situation of the American’s own doing, one which we believe they will ignore until it’s too late. Sasha, tell him the part you told me last night, about the money.”

Leonid looked back and forth, obviously unhappy he wasn’t in on any of this.

“And what situation will that be?” Leonid queried.

Sasha threw some more charts across the table, “Look at the US population projection between now and 2010. As you can see, the post war ‘Baby Boom’ generation, now in their late and early 40s, will start retiring about then.”

“So? What does this mean to me? That’s twenty five years from now. Why should I care?” Leonid wasn’t following.

“Think about it. They have massive debt obligations and Reagan has so far been unsuccessful in controlling entitlement spending. He’s borrowing money for his military buildup and I assess the American congress will remain unwilling to cut entitlement spending for the foreseeable future.  This will be their true undoing. Look at this chart, in about 20 years almost one third of their population will dependent on government pensions and medical care. That’s almost 80 million people, Comrade Colonel,” Sasha gave a nervous little laugh, “They are good capitalists, but poor socialists! Sir, in only a few years they won’t be able to afford military modernization. Bombers will be their last concern as this will lead to a complete paralysis of their government and economy. ” 

Leonid looked solemnly at the printouts on the table and thought about the Soviet Union’s current dire straights, “I fear we are poor socialists, too, my little friend. Please, go on.”

 Sasha continued, “The implications are staggering! If we can slow down their technological-to-military conversion cycle, even a little, they soon won’t be able to buy new weapon systems. We help choke off their own heart, they dry up the life blood of cash themselves. This will buy time for the Soviet Union to solve its own problems and allow us to resume the global revolution.”

For the next few hours the pilot, the spy and the geek hashed out the details and set Operation CHOLESTEROL into motion.

“So its agreed,” Leonid proclaimed, “It is in my authority to initiate low scale operations, and this project fits neatly into my mandate. Sasha, as the grand architect I want project details on my desk in the morning. Sergey, you will be responsible for all field operations, of course.

“Of course,” Sergey responded. He and Sasha exchanged knowing glances.

“Comrades, this is classified at the highest level. Details will not leave this room. Nor do I need to tell you how dire our situation is. Soviet Man must take the long view, and this plan does that. This will be our advantage over the capitalists. I just hope we have the time to see it bear fruit. Good luck gentlemen.”

With that Leonid turned to leave. Sergey and Sasha returned their attention the papers on the table and began planning Operation CHOLESTEROL in earnest. Colonel Leonid walked by the lieutenant sitting in the corner listening to the Walkman. The young man was softly singing along in English with Michael Jackson’s “Billy Jean,” which was clearly and loudly leaking around the foam earphones. He was oblivious to the imposing presence of a Colonel of SovietLongRange Aviation looming above him. Irritated, Leonid snatched the contraption from his ears. Surprised and terrified, the lieutenant snapped to attention.

“Is this yours?” Leonid asked calmly, examining the cassette player.

“Yes, Comrade Colonel!” the shaking young officer shouted.

“Do you like western music? What is it called…the ‘disco boogie’? Do you like to disco boogie?”

“Uhh…yes…kind of, Comrade Colonel,” He said nervously, afraid he would answer incorrectly.

Leonid gazed down at the Walkman dangling in his hand. Somewhere deep inside he feared the little contraption. It was an alien, an unwelcome invader - light, compact and flashy.  It intruded upon his gloomy, gray metal sanctuary. The Russian instinctively knew the mix of Japanese technology and American culture was the future. He briefly considered stomping it under his heel.

“This boogie music, it’s not all its cracked up to be, eh?”

“No, sir.”

“What is your purpose here?”

“I’m an air defense pilot recently reassigned to your staff, sir!”

“A fighter pilot,” Leonid grunted, “That figures, I should shoot you instead. Keep this damn thing out of my vault. Carry on,” he handed it back, shook his head and left.

The ghosts fade and the years pass. Once again, two old men sit and drink vodka at the same table where Operation CHOLESTEROL was hatched years ago.

Sergey nods, “I read where the outgoing American air force secretary pondered if the acquisitions process was ‘too complicated’. What an understatement!”

Leonid nods, “A very similar statement was made by their outgoing air force chief of staff months ago. When asked about the floundering rescue helicopter program he indicated the selection was ‘out of his hands’, the purview of some committee. Imagine, the most powerful man in the American Air Force unable to influence the selection of a critical weapon system. These are not the same Americans who defeated us.”

“The old world passed away and yet Operation CHOLESTEROL still wreaks havoc upon our old adversary. I did the math the other day, over 80% of all their current manned systems were bought prior to CHOLESTEROL. We did pretty good, eh?” Sergey’s sagging face carries a wry, knowing grin.

Leonid downs another shot of Vodka. The bottle is almost gone, “Bah! We were too late, Sergey. Perestroika, Glasnost, the fall of Berlin. We were the doomed ones, not the Americans. It was all for nothing. Any damage Operation CHOLESTEROL continues to inflict is meaningless spite. And Sasha, what was his sacrifice for? I sent him to America to jumpstart the operation only to have the CIA kill him. For what?”

Sergey is still grinning over the table at Leonid. Leonid lifts a bushy eyebrow suspiciously.

“What aren’t you telling me, you slimy old fox?”

Sergey reaches into his coat and produces an envelope. He tosses it on the table in front of Leonid, who slowly picks it up never taking his eyes off the spy. It is simply addressed “Director, Operation CHOLESTEROL.” He opened it. It contains a photo and three neatly folded papers. He examines each one at a time. The first piece of paper has only a series of numbers printed on it. He looks up at Sergey, but says nothing. He opens the next folded paper. It’s a hand written letter. He reads in growing disbelief…

Comrade Colonel,

            If you’re reading this then, once again, Sergey was correct. You returned to the vault on an anniversary of the day you pulled the gun on me (for which I’m still waiting for an apology). I will apologize first, however, for deceiving you. As you must now realize I was never assassinated by the CIA. I’ve been living anonymously in America for the last 19 years. This was necessary, as it was necessary to deceive you. The KGB had moles within our cell. Your ignorance was your shield.

            Operation CHOLESTEROL was a sham. My analysis was correct, but the Americans didn’t need our help pushing them into the abyss. They did it quite well on their own. I knew this back then, though I didn’t really believe they would let this go on for so long. No, our national suicide was a more immediate problem, and voicing such concerns back then could get one shot. Sergey and I knew the Soviet Union was rapidly collapsing.  Operation CHOLESTEROL was the means to assure our security in a post-Soviet world.  

Sergey talked you into allowing me to go to the US to help him set up the operation. Once I was in country he arranged my ‘assassination’. In reality, I siphoned the KGB seed money and went underground. Sergey provided me with a false identity and I began my new life as a very successful business man and investor. Sergey maintained my cover until the Soviet Union collapsed. Our plan was to come out of hiding once democracy took root and bring you in. Unfortunately, the ghosts of the KGB exist to this day. Their reach is far and lethal, friend. Far and lethal. Sergey stayed back, providing cover while I safely made our fortune in America.

In the envelope you’ll find a number for a Swiss bank account. Comrade Colonel, you are now filthy rich. I’ve done well with the paltry sum you gave us to sabotage the Americans all those years ago. Sergey has his cut, too. If you’re curious, you’ll find the latest product of one of my capitalist investments in the envelope.  Funny thing, I got the idea on the same day we pitched Operation CHOLESTEROL.

Now that you know the secret we’ve kept from you all these years, your shield of ignorance is gone. It would be best if you leave Russia before your new found wealth becomes public knowledge. Sergey has information which you might find helpful.

You were right when you said we were poor socialists. It was obvious where we were heading back then, but politics blinded us. It is obvious where the Americans are heading, too. I hope they wake up and realize they make poor socialists. We’re invested in their future now.

For both of our sakes, we will never meet again. I wish you good fortune, Comrade Colonel.

Sasha

Leonid puts down the letter and pulls out the photo. It shows Sasha, almost unchanged except for a slight tinge of gray in his long hair. He is shirtless and tanned, bathed in dazzling midday sunlight. He sits cross legged on the deck of an expensive boat. Smiling with pearly white teeth, he’s holding up a bottle of beer, surrounded by beautiful young women in bikini bottoms and wet t-shirts sporting the words “Girls Gone Wild 2005”. Behind him was an emerald sea dotted with white sailboats.

“Geek,” Disgusted, Leonid sighs and tosses the photo to the table.

Pale, he looks up at Sergey, now standing. Leaning against his cane the old spy hands him a sealed plain manila document folder.  

“Inside you will find a new identity, passport, and airline tickets. What you do with them is your choice as they cannot be traced back to me or Sasha. This is where we say goodbye, old friend.” Sergey looks around and grimaces at the room, “This place is a tomb. Do not linger here long, it’s not healthy.”

With that Sergey limps to the door.

“Where will you go? What will you do?” Leonid calls after him.

The old Cold Warrior turns and smiles, “I don’t know. Maybe I will move to Montana and raise rabbits. Goodbye, Leonid.” Sergey turns and walks through the open door down the long hallway.

Leonid is in shock, reeling at new world thrust upon him. He reaches into the envelope and removes the last folded paper. A small, silver device, no bigger than a credit card, slides out and clatters onto the table. Connected to the device is a thin white wire terminating in tiny earphones. He has heard of these, though he didn’t know how they worked.

“YOU OWN PART OF THIS COMPANY. PRESS THE BUTTON WITH THE SINGLE ARROW AT THE BOTTOM AND PUT THE EAR BUDS IN YOUR EARS” is written on the paper it was wrapped in. Leonid fumbles with the ear buds and finds the play button. An I-POD logo flashes on the tiny screen followed by a crisp, clear image of a young Michael Jackson walking down a sidewalk which lights up wherever he steps. The familiar refrain of “Billy Jean” begins. The video from another era plays in crisp, digital quality. Leonid pulls off the ear buds and looks up at Sergey’s retreating figure as it vanishes and reappears as under each bare light bulb, shadows following his footsteps. He finally disappears forever into the darkness beyond.

(The picture brightens showing a stop watch with the familiar ‘tick tick tick’ sound.)

ANNOUCER: Tonight on 50 Minutes. Unbeknownst to an unsuspecting country, half a century ago he and American’s most powerful public figures left earth on an alien spacecraft. Tonight, on a 50 Minutes exclusive, Air Force General Curtis LeMay speaks for the first time after returning to earth.

(Katie sits in a high director’s chair, facing an expressionless LeMay in full uniform, four silver stars gleam on his shoulder. He looks like he did in the early 1960s, also sitting in a director’s chair with a lit stogie clenched in his teeth.)

COURIC: General LeMay, America was astonished when you and half a dozen great Americans emerged from (cough) from the (cough)…General? Could you please extinguish that cigar? It’s against New York City law and CBS policy to smoke in a place of business.

(LeMay stares at her expressionless, saying nothing. He rolls the fat cigar around to the other side of his mouth. )

COURIC: Uh…okay. I think we can make an exception since you’ve been gone a long time.

LEMAY: A week.

COURIC: Excuse me?

LEMAY: I’ve been gone a week. Travel at near the speed of light has some interesting side effects. Einstein was right. Smart guy. He gave me this Cuban cigar, a damn fine one at that. He gave the aliens a box of Cubans, too.

COURIC: The aliens smoke?

LEMAY: Not all the time, only when they’re drinking.

COURIC: Why did the aliens take you and the others?

LEMAY: We were a diplomatic and trade delegation. 

COURIC: So what was your role? You were, are…a…a military officer. What would an advanced race of space faring aliens want with you?

LEMAY: (pauses and looks at her expressionlessly) Well, missy, they’re like anyone else. They have enemies, very bad enemies. They were amazed how fast we adopted aerospace power for defense. They thought some of our tactics were fairly advanced. I was a military liaison helping them apply airpower doctrine to their space/time faring technology. Funny thing, they didn’t take any reporters.

COURIC: (blinks and continues) Can you tell us about their technology, other than what we already know?

LEMAY: No, other than the fact we were supposed to bring a lot of it home before the deal fell through. We were supposed to stay for two weeks.

COURIC: Why did the deal fall through? Does this have anything to do with how fast the spacecraft departed after it landed and deposited you and the others on the Mall in Washington DC?

LEMAY: About four days after we left my host officer came and got us during a poker game we were having with some of the aliens. He said something bad was happening back on earth and they were turning the ship around. He showed us television broadcasts from earth and I couldn’t believe my eyes. I thought we could still salvage the mission, but once our hosts showed us a broadcast of “Different Strokes” I knew it was over. They called off the deal and said, “Don’t call us, we’ll call you.” They dropped us off and wished us good luck trying to straighten this mess out.

(Couric is silent, jaw agape.)

LEMAY: Great bunch of guys. Short, smart, and can handle their booze. They make great pilots. They only kept two of the documents we brought them, though. I’ll think they’ll come back once they run out of scotch and Cubans.  

COURIC: What were the documents they kept?

LEMAY: The Bible and the Constitution.

(Couric is stunned, a look of shocked disbelief on her face.)

LEMAY: You look a little pale, there, young lady. Are you okay?

COURIC: Uhmm, yes, uh….are these the same aliens which crashed in Roswell and have been abducting humans for years?

LEMAY: Yea, they had a forced landing at Roswell. Engine trouble, but any landing you can walk away from is a good one...they laughed when I told them that one! They were our guest for a few years and helped us set up the trade delegation. ‘Abduction’ is a strong term, they just wanted to meet the common folk. We told them what good people we had in our heartland and they wanted to find out for themselves.

COURIC: Abductees have told stories of horrible experiments, even anal probes! How is this ‘meeting the common folk’?!

LEMAY: Calm down, missy. The aliens are aviators. Each spacecraft has its own flight surgeon. They’ve got silly regulations just like we do. Everyone who boards and flies on one of their craft must undergo an annual flight physical. Those physicals entail a prostate examine and those buggers have fingers as big as their eyes! The bad part is the annual examine is based on earth time, not spacecraft time. That came out to seven prostrate exams a day for us. Ever few hours they’d walk in and say, ‘General LeMay, time for your annual flight physical.’ Damn if I could talk them out of it. ‘Regulations are regulations, General LeMay, you of all people should understand that,’ they’d say. (He squirms in his seat and looks uncomfortable) You’re fortunate I was able to sit down for this interview.

COURIC: Thank you for that information, general, but it was more than I needed to know. You ran for the vice presidency with George Wallace in 1968 and died in 1990. How can this be if you were with aliens that whole time?

LEMAY: That was a robot the aliens left to take my place. Unfortunately, it had a bad reaction to boiled peanuts and turned evil. I take no responsibility for any of its actions.

COURIC: How do we know you’re not an evil robot?

LEMAY: You don’t. Next question.

(Couric’s eyes are wide, silence.)

LEMAY: Missy, I’m a busy man. Are you going to sit there and stare at me all day or are you going to ask me questions?

COURIC: You’ve been reinstated as the new Chief of Staff for the Air Force, the same post you held in 1961. Why did they ask you to come back?

LEMAY: Because my Air Force is broken and I’m going to fix it.

COURIC: How is it broken?

LEMAY: What’s broken!?  Did anyone notice you are flying a lot of the same damn aircraft we were flying back in 1961?

COURIC: Is that a problem?

LEMAY: Missy, would you feel comfortable flying coast to coast in a 1950’s era 707?

COURIC: I don’t know, but aren’t you comparing apples and oranges?

LEMAY: Any old apple will get you from New York to L.A. Any old orange won’t deliver airpower from continent to continent (takes out his cigar and shakes it for effect). We left you kids a world class air force and the world’s best aerospace industry. Back then we had several dozen companies making a slew of advanced fighters and bombers. Now we’re down to basically Boeing and Lockheed. Europe is kicking our as* and selling us our helicopters, tankers and airliners. What the HELL have you all been doing for the last half century? We were about to land of the moon and now I learn we haven’t been back since 1972 and the damn Communist Chinese might beat us back. You know, Boeing gave us the KC-135 and B-52, combat ready, about 5 years after we signed the contracts. Christ Almighty, you…you...you peoplecan’t even choose a tanker in under a decade. Well, let me tell you, as my first decision I’m going to pick one tomorrow.

COURIC: Do you have that authority?

LEMAY: Yes. Next question.

COURIC: Will you tell me what your decision will be?

LEMAY: No. Next question.

COURIC: (looking flustered) What other problems are you going to tackle?

LEMAY: I’m going to scrap this “Expeditionary Air Force” crap.

COURIC: Can you elaborate on that statement?

LEMAY: Sure, missy. Living in tents and flying tactical aircraft across borders and back was against everything we were trying to build back in the 1950s and 60s. We envisioned a strategic air force which launched from CONUS, could fly to any point of the globe, strike at will, and return. An overseas foot print on the ground is a liability. We didn’t have the technology to fully realize that vision back then. Today, you have that technology, but instead you’re playing in the sand with the Army.

COURIC: I’m not schooled in military matters. But my sources tell me our ground forces want the Air Force to concentrate more on ground support roles.

LEMAY: The Army wants the finger and eye of God Himself, nothing less. They want us to magically smite their enemies from the heavens at the click of a radio. I can give them that, but they don’t tell me how to do it. I’ve got a bigger picture and they are only one part of it. That’s not what you call ‘politically correct’ these days. Speaking of politically correct, folks today don’t admit when they screw up. I screwed up when I played a part in our biggest mistake back in 1947. Then, we let the other services keep their aircraft. Dumb. If it involves powered flight, it should belong to the Air Force. Period.  

COURIC: Isn’t that a politically risky stance?

LEMAY: Yes, but they worst they can do is fire me. Hell, I got four stars on my shoulder. I think I can stand a few bumps and bruises.

COURIC: You’re very outspoken, General LeMay, but some say you’re a bit of a anachronism, a dinosaur, a relic of a bygone era.

LEMAY: Who said that?

COURIC: I can’t divulge my sources.

LEMAY: I see reporters are still spineless weasels. What you’re saying is you think I’m a dinosaur. Dinosaurs were giants who strode the world like they owned it for millions of years. They apologized for nothing and ate those who pissed them off. It took God himself to wipe them out. I guess I’m a dinosaur, missy, so don’t pi** me off.

COURIC: Please, don’t call me ‘missy’.

LEMAY: Sure, sweetie (He blows a puff of smoke, his face expressionless but his eyes are twinkling.)

(Couric’s eyes narrow as she tries to keep her cool. In slow, measured tones she continues.)

COURIC: What is your opinion of women in combat?

LEMAY: Dumb.

(Couric smiles, and eagerly continues in a ‘gotch’ya’ manner.)

COURIC: Isn’t that a slap at all the brave women serving in combat today?

LEMAY: No, it’s just a statement of fact. You people have been living off the security my generation bought for you. You’ve been insulated in a nearly consequence-free existence. You think, therefore, you can place women in combat and not reap the consequences. No women have had their heads chopped of on Al Jazzera, no women have been dragged through streets of Baghdad. Yes, some women have died bravely in the line of duty but it hasn’t been en masse. When that happens, and it will, the second worst thing which could happen is America seeing the folly of its ‘women in combat’ policy.

COURIC: What’s the worst thing which could happen?

LEMAY: America doesn’t see the folly of this policy. You people are so confused you don’t even know the natural differences between the sexes.

(Couric is obviously perturbed.)

 COURIC: Can we assume, then, you will pull women from combat roles in the air force?

 LEMAY: Absolutely not. 

(Couric looks down and shuffles her papers, not quiet sure how to take what she just heard.)  

COURIC: I see. There has been much progress in civil rights since you left. African-Americans now serve in every capacity alongside whites not only in the Air Force, but in society as a whole. What are your thoughts on this?

LEMAY: Good, it’s about time.

COURIC: Didn’t you support racist policies, like those of George Wallace?

LEMAY: No. Evil robot on boiled peanuts. Remember? 

(Couric shakes her head and looks off camera at her producer as if you say “You’ve got to be kidding me.”) 

COURIC: Uh…um...okay (shuffles her notes again and tries to regain her composure) What are some other changes you’ll be making as the new Air Force chief of staff?

LEMAY: I’m reinstating Strategic Air Command and ordering our missiles and bombers back on alert.  

COURIC: Isn’t that an unnecessarily provocative move?! We’ve been at peace with Russia for years. 

LEMAY: Who said anything about Russia? I’m placing bombers on airborne alert at fail safe points just outside Iranian airspace. If they want to play in the big leagues, so be it.

COURIC: Who granted you that authority? 

LEMAY: The president, that’s who. The Supreme Court agreed he didn’t serve out his term, so bingo, he’s back in. 

COURIC: Yes…I see. Since John F. Kennedy was reinstated as president we’ve seen many…uh…unexpected changes. How do you think Iran will react to this move?

LEMAY: I don’t care how they react. You people should have obliterated them back in 1979 when they occupied our embassy, a flagrant act of war. That was the second biggest mistake you people made since we left.

COURIC: (sighs) I’m afraid to ask, but I have too. What was our biggest mistake, general?

LEMAY: It was either exporting your industrial base to China or importing “Survivor” from England. I haven’t made up my mind which is worse. I think the Brits are great, but never import their food, dental work, or television.

COURIC: Sir, is there anything America or the air force has done since you left of which you approve? Have we done anything right in the last half century?

LEMAY: I like what you’ve done with unmanned aircraft. The Global Hawk is a fantastic weapon system. Stealth, precision engagement…great capabilities, too. On the civilian side, you’ve done great things with medicine. Don’t, however, expect me to sit here and pat you kids on head. You’ve screwed up and royally. We were practically energy independent when I left. Now you buy your oil from the very people who want us dead and refuse to look for oil yourselves. Damn fools, the lot of you.  

COURIC: (Looks sternly at him) Many Americans would disagree with you. Aren’t you overstepping the political boundaries of a military officer?

 LEMAY: (Takes his cigar out, leans forward and speaks in slow measured tones) Of course many Americans disagree with me, but thanks to you people wrecking our education system many of those same idiots can’t find their state on a map. I won’t suffer fools and I refuse keep my mouth shut. I’m going to help the president put a stake through the heart of this “political correctness” crap, which is just another name for good old fashioned communism. And you idiots bought it. (Leans back and puts the cigar back in his mouth) And yes, I am overstepping the bounds of what a military officer should say politically. Therefore, I’ll leave those issues to the president.

COURIC: (Snaps a wicked glare off the set at her producer and angrily reshuffles her papers) I see. What exactly is your relationship with the new President?

LEMAY: (Waives affably and smiles around his cigar) Great man, we really got to know each other on the trip. We’ve had our differences in the past, but when we saw how screwed up America has become we settled those and agreed on how to fix them. I think him and the first lady are great people.

COURIC: (Obviously glad to change subjects, her mood lightens) Many were shocked to see Marilyn Monroe emerge from the alien spacecraft at JFK’s side. We all assumed she died back in 1962. We were even more surprised when the President announced they were getting married.

LEMAY: No, Marilyn really did die back then. The first lady is an alien robot. The aliens are a creative bunch, God bless ‘em.

COURIC: (Pauses, jaw open) The First Lady of the United States is an alien robot?

LEMAY: An evil alien robot, to boot! Heh heh! (The general rolls his cigar in his fingers and looks off into the distance as if he’s somewhere else and mumbles….) She’s an evil, naughty alien robot…very naughty…

COURIC: (Looks disgusted) General? General LeeeMaaayyy!

LEMAY: (The general snaps back to the present, smiles, and puts the cigar back in his mouth) Unfortunately, the delegation members outlived most of our friends and relations back here on earth, including our spouses. It’s not good for a man to be alone and the aliens knew this. They asked the president, our leader, who he wanted the companion-bot modeled on. He came up with Ms. Monroe. Einstein thought it was a hoot, he couldn't stop laughing for a day!

COURIC: That’s disgusting!

LEMAY: (Looks Katie up and down) You know, toots, I’m back in circulation. How about you and me grab some chow and I’ll tell you what it was like to firebomb Tokyo.

(Katie stares in disbelief. Image fades and is replaced with stopwatch ‘tick tick tick’ sound.)

ANNOUCER: Next on 50 Minutes, Morely Safer interviews President John F. Kennedy and the new first lady.

SAFER: (Thoughtfully strokes his chin) Mrs. Kennedy, is it true you are an evil alien robot?

MONROE (MRS. KENNEDY): (Pouting and looking very hot) “I’m not bad, I’m just built that way.”

SAFER: Mr. President, doesn’t it disturb you your wife, the First Lady of our nation, is an alien robot?

KENNEDY: (Looking as young and vibrant as he did during Nixon/Kennedy debates, he has an enormous grin on his face. He holds a small paper bag out to Marilyn.) Why don’t you have another boiled peanut, darling? 

The Government Accounting Office upheld Boeing’s tanker contract protest. In the latest Air Force Times article “Tanker Travesty” the GAO cites at least seven major areas where the Air Force didn’t follow its own process. The article says the tanker decision could be delayed another 1 to 3 years and it may take a decade to fix the acquisitions system.

The Air Force is bleeding. It’s bleeding like the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail. Even worse, the service is the one holding the sword, cutting off its own limbs and mumbling, “It’s only a flesh wound.”

The service doesn’t have a decade to fix the system nor can it afford another multiyear tanker delay. The budget window is starting to close. The bleeding must stop now, but how?

Come with me to the Land of Make Believe. In this bizarre, alternate universe someone in a blue uniform with lots of stars on their shoulders is about to hold a press conference, let’s listen in:    

“Good morning. Recently, the Government Accounting Office upheld Boeing’s protest of the Air Force’s awarding of the new aerial tanker contract to Northrop-EADS. We’ve carefully reviewed the GAO ruling and concur with each and everyone one of their findings. We screwed up. As the man in charge, I take full responsibility.  

I’ve ordered a complete overhaul of our acquisitions process to ensure this never happens again. I’ve also ordered this review be conducted by outside experts. With this being said, I must keep in mind why the service started the process to find a new tanker over a decade ago.  

The KC-135 is a reliable and remarkable warhorse, but it’s approaching half a century of service. I cannot, in good conscious, ask these brave men and women to conduct combat operations for another twenty years in a certifiable antique. The needs of the mission and those who fly combat day-in and day-out must take precedence over procedural considerations. Therefore, I’ve ordered the Air Force to immediately proceed with the contract as awarded. I do not make this decision lightly and do so based on extraordinary circumstances: We are an Air Force at war and the KC-135 is become too old to conduct sustained combat operations for another two decades.  

Both Northrop-EADS and Boeing presented outstanding bids. Either platform would make a worthy successor to the venerable KC-135. However, the service can ill-afford yet another lengthy delay delivering new, desperately needed, combat iron to our aircrews. I understand this not ideal. I know there will be calls for the competition to be re-bid in the interest of ‘fairness.’ However, I ask our elected political leaders, the two corporations involved, and the American taxpayer to consider what is fair for the men and women performing this difficult mission as well as the countless warfighters depending on the capability they provide. There is a higher cause I must honor, and therefore, why I had to make this difficult choice.  

In return, I promise to fix this broken system and to do so within one year. We must restore America’s faith in the Air Force’s ability to field new major weapon systems in a timely, fair and cost effective manner.  

It’s time to press on with the mission. Thank you, I’ll take a few questions.”

In the Land of Make Believe, Airmen from Alaska to Afghanistan stand up and cheer.  

Of course, this scene is completely fictional and not intended to resemble any person, living or dead (at least in this dimension.) However, could anything like this ever happen in our universe? Like comedian Steve Martin used to say on the original Saturday Night Live…Naw! It’s too politically risky. Congress will howl. Boeing will howl. The media will howl. Such action would bring too much heat to bear on an already wounded service.

The only people who won’t howl are the Airmen doing the mission, they'll rightfully salute and press on.

Sadly, the service will attempt to fix its acquisition system by throwing more money at it. They’ll hire more people to write new processes to fix the old processes. Regulations and instructions will multiply and grow more complicated. Smart corporate lawyers will find new loopholes and oversights and lay more protests at the GAO’s feet. The GAO will thoroughly review each and the cycle will begin anew.

And the bleeding will continue.

Shameful.

The U.S. Air Force is in dire straits, an organization in crisis by any measure. The warning signs are shocking:

- In 2002 it mismanaged the KC-X competition resulting in a senior acquisitions official going to jail.

- The CSARX rescue helicopter competition, delayed for over two years, is still mired in political and legal battles.

- The service cut almost 15% of its total manpower in order to modernize equipment, only to end up with a smaller force and little modernization. 

- Another high ranking acquisitions official committed suicide over another brewing scandal.

- The Air Force unknowingly loaded nuclear weapons on a bomber and flew it across the country.

- It lost track of other nuclear components, mistakenly sending them to Taiwan.  

- The service can only buy half the F-22s it needs to fulfill its stated requirements.

- Recently, the chief of staff and secretary of the Air Forces were sacked, the first time in history the two top positions in a military service were simultaneously fired.

- It lost track of another 1000 nuclear weapons components.

- Now, it botched up the new aerial tanker contract again.

From 1990 to 2012 the service squandered its only opportunity to modernize. It’s facing the same looming budget disaster as the rest of the nation. Starting in 2012 Social Security and Medicare will start sucking the federal budget dry, closing the door on major force modernization. Between entitlements and endless wars the service will find it nearly impossible to build the 21^st century force it so desperately needs. They are in hole they may not be able to climb out of.

Was it strictly the services fault? No, but most of the blame falls squarely in their lap. How did it come to this?

Lack of Strategic Thinking. The service rewards tactical thinking, focusing only one or two budget cycles in the future.

Lack of Common Identity. There is no common cultural lynchpin which binds all Airmen the way the other services are unified. The Air Force has a fractured culture for two reasons: it’s a service of ‘program managers,’ stove-piped into specific career fields and weapons systems; and because most ‘Airmen’ have nothing to do with aviation.

The service lost control to a self-serving bureaucracy. The Air Force’s requirements and acquisitions system serves congress and their lobbyist. It serves the contractors. It serves the armies of civil servants in Washington and the Pentagon. The system serves everyone except the warfighters in the field and therefore, in the long run truly serves the interest of our adversaries. Our ‘peer rivals’ only need to wait us out as the bureaucracy does nothing and our fleet rots. 

The Air Force has become a service of stewards, not innovators. With few exceptions, the service no longer blazes new aviation trails. The few new programs in existence were started many years ago and many of those are in trouble. It’s not just a question of funding, but of cultural willingness to take risks.

Lack of combat aviation leadership. Deployments and combat are not the same, this distinction is blurred in the service. Fewer and fewer people running the show and pulling the levers of power are combat veterans, let alone combat aviators. Being combat aircrew actually hinders one’s chances of advancement – they are just too busy to ‘fill the squares.’ Why is this important? Combat aviators approach problems with a purpose driven perspective. Many bureaucrats running the service today are process driven and don’t understand those flying the front lines. Basic aviation concepts, from the way aircrew solve problems to fight battles, are alien to most Airmen.

Rampant Careerism. Way too many officers are too concerned with punching a ticket and moving on. Innovation and change require courage to make mistakes. Mistakes kill careers. Therefore, most play it safe, move on, and move up. Challenging times call for big, bold decisions. Instead, our staffs are filled with bureaucrats tending aging fleets and floundering programs. 

I am beginning to doubt the US Air Force can endure as a separate military service.

These are tough words, but these are tough times.