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Real Defense Cuts Begin

I predicted that the current administration's real defense budget would manifest this coming fiscal cycle. This story from Reuters states...
 
U.S. military services have been told to find savings of between $50 billion and $60 billion over five years in their current programs to fund new initiatives, a senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday.

David Ochmanek, deputy assistant secretary of defense for force transformation and resources, said the Pentagon had identified gaps in its capabilities and had told the services to fill them, while assuming no overall budget growth.

"It's now up to the components to figure out how best to make real those new capabilities and capacities and to find offsets within an assumption of zero real growth," Ochmanek told a group of defense reporters...

The Obama administration has asked Congress for $663.8 billion for the Pentagon for the 2010 fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, including $130 billion in war funding, mainly for the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ochmanek said analysts working on the QDR had been told to assume zero growth in the defense budget but this did not necessarily mean there would be no increases.
 
Translation: The military must meet current obligations as well as new $50-60 billion in new requirements (about 1/2 the current Air Force budget) with no additional funding. Lets take the $130 billion for current wars out of the overall $663 billion. That leave $533 billion for force sustainment, modernization, fuel, manpower, etc. This is where the $60 billion will come from. That's a shift of 11% of the budget over a one-to-five year period. Since current missions won't suffer, it will  most likely come out of modernization or personnel.
 
First, this is a massive alteration of our defense establishment. Second, what are these "new initiatives"?
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2010 Defense Budget Highlights Released Tomorrow

By this time tomorrow the media will be dissecting the proposed 2010 defense budget. Secretary Gates is slated to release some details of the $513 billion dollar Pentagon budget on 6 April. Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Friday the recommendations for defense budget "aren't changes on the margins. It is a fundamental shift in direction."

With that, I think it’s a good time to review some of the predictions I made since last fall:

1. Some defense spending will remain strong, even as the budget shrinks. This will only be for certain mature programs and only in key Democratic districts. 

2. Big programs, small programs, nothing will be sacred. Expect early retirement for various weapon systems. This will not impact democratic districts. Don’t hold your breath on a new rescue helicopter unless the HH-47 wins. Parts of it are made in Murtha’s state of PA.

3. Rep. Barney Frank’s comment about a 25% cut in overall defense spending will come true, but not in the baseline budget. Expect the wartime supplemental spending to plummet as troops come home from Iraq.

Some new predictions:

1. Obama’s cuts will hurt defense companies. Watch for Congress to follow with a nationalization plan. Many companies will go willingly.

2. Keep you eye out for more cuts to personnel programs. Obama’s attempt to cut VA funding by shifting $500 million in service-related medical costs to private insurance took me by surprise. I expected him to increase personnel benefits for military to lure away DoD voters from the Republicans. Therefore, it may be the Dems have written off military as permanently political adversaries.

3. Once congress gets a hold of the budget some pork will be added back in, but the administration must get its defense cuts in during the next two years. After that, the election cycle will begin anew and he’ll have to move back to the center to get reelected. He'll be counting America’s short memories.

We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

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2010 Defense Budget Highlights Released Tomorrow

By this time tomorrow the media will be dissecting the proposed 2010 defense budget. Secretary Gates is slated to release some details of the $513 billion dollar Pentagon budget on 6 April. Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Friday the recommendations for defense budget "aren't changes on the margins. It is a fundamental shift in direction."

With that, I think it’s a good time to review some of the predictions I made since last fall:

1. Some defense spending will remain strong, even as the budget shrinks. This will only be for certain mature programs and only in key Democratic districts. 

2. Big programs, small programs, nothing will be sacred. Expect early retirement for various weapon systems. This will not impact democratic districts. Don’t hold your breath on a new rescue helicopter unless the HH-47 wins. Parts of it are made in Murtha’s state of PA.

3. Rep. Barney Frank’s comment about a 25% cut in overall defense spending will come true, but not in the baseline budget. Expect the wartime supplemental spending to plummet as troops come home from Iraq.

Some new predictions:

1. Obama’s cuts will hurt defense companies. Watch for Congress to follow with a nationalization plan. Many companies will go willingly.

2. Keep you eye out for more cuts to personnel programs. Obama’s attempt to cut VA funding by shifting $500 million in service-related medical costs to private insurance took me by surprise. I expected him to increase personnel benefits for military to lure away DoD voters from the Republicans. Therefore, it may be the Dems have written off military as permanently political adversaries.

3. Once congress gets a hold of the budget some pork will be added back in, but the administration must get its defense cuts in during the next two years. After that, the election cycle will begin anew and he’ll have to move back to the center to get reelected. He'll be counting America’s short memories.

We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

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