The armed forces of the U.K., the U.S.'s biggest military ally, will need billions of dollars more than they have to spend, according to a government audit report, requiring what analysts say will be fundamental cuts to operations...

With Britain battling a record budget deficit, many political analysts say funding for the armed services will fall rather than increase...

The report underscores an evergreen criticism of modern British governments: that they ask their armed forces to project a global military presence without giving them the financial backing to do so.

Is America under funding our military while expecting them to maintain a global presence? At first glance, the answer is no.

Page one of Defense News reported on yesterday President Obama and the congress added $100 billion dollars to the defense budget to...

...cover the rising cost of operations, personnel and pressing modernization needs, officials said.

If approved by Congress, the money would allow defense spending to rise about 1 percent above projected inflation, analysts said.

DoD’s 2010 budget request called for $534 billion, plus $130 billion to cover the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq...

Among other procurement efforts, the money will pay for new Air Force global strike programs — including work on new manned and unmanned systems — Army brigade combat team modernization, a Navy attack submarine and the Navy’s new Carrier Long-Range Strike system, sources said...

Analysts called the decision a victory for Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has lobbied the White House for more funding.

At first blush, this appears to the act of a government backing its resolution with teeth as it sends men and women abroad in harms way. However, a closer look reveals this spending bill does not include...

...the estimated $30 billion that will be needed to fund President Barack Obama’s recent decision to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan.

Now the Hill reports there is even less in this spending bill for the Pentagon to accomplish its missions...

The defense-spending bill written by Congress ignores cuts to several high-profile Pentagon programs proposed by the Obama administration...includes money for the General Electric-Rolls-Royce alternative engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and for 10 additional Boeing C-17 cargo planes...It also includes a lifeline of sorts for the VH-71 presidential helicopter, which the administration has canceled due to cost concerns.

The Pentagon did not ask for money to continue any of these programs. The funding for the three programs makes up about $3.1 billion in the $636.3 billion Pentagon-spending bill agreed to by congressional negotiators.

Gates also told the Senate that he strongly opposed the $2.5 billion for 10 additional C-17s....But Democrats are also looking to the defense bill as a vehicle to raise the country’s debt ceiling and to extend unemployment benefits and healthcare insurance subsidies for the long-term jobless.

So it is unlikely that Obama will end up vetoing the bill, despite the previous threats.

There it is. These initiatives won’t fund the president’s war surge or critical programs identified by the Pentagon and Secretary of Defense. This bill is one big pork-barrel trough for initiatives already rejected by the president, the Secretary of Defense, and the generals in the Pentagon. Its also a domestic spending bill disguised as a defense bill. After this bill is signed a few contactors in key districts will benefit and the troops will get equipment they don’t want or need.  

The U.K. is only a few paces down the road to Hell ahead of us. In a few more budget cycles we’ll be in the same place. Every precious dollar congress spends on pork and not on real defense requirements is a bill our troops will pay later - when they’re stranded overseas and no one has their back. 

Our economic collapse will quickly be followed by our military collapse...unless the citizens of this nation reign in the mafia we call Congress.

Europe-style entitlements mean Europe-sized defenses.

For our money, one of the better parts of President Obama's speech at West Point this week was his connection between a healthy economy and U.S. national security. To quote: "Our prosperity provides a foundation for our power. It pays for our military. It underwrites our diplomacy." We only wish Mr. Obama understood the link between the larger welfare state he is trying to build at home and the economic weakness that will undermine our military power.

The proof is right before his eyes in the U.S. struggle to get Europe to contribute more forces to Afghanistan. Mr. Obama has called on NATO to buttress the U.S. surge of 30,000 in Afghanistan with 5,000 or more European troops. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Brussels today to round up promissory notes. But except for the usual stalwarts—Britain and Poland—the allies are having trouble meeting even this modest goal. Germany and France are reluctant to contribute anything more to defeat the Taliban.

This is by now a familiar story, and a big part of the problem is the relative lack of military spending. Among the Western Europeans, only France and the U.K. spend more than 2% of GDP on defense, supposedly the NATO-mandated minimum. Nearly everyone else is below that. Germany, the continent's largest economy, stands at 1.3%. U.S. defense spending has been above 4% of GDP since 2004, having fallen to 3% after the Cold War ended.

No amount of pleading and shaming has worked on the continentals. NATO launched the "Defense Capabilities Initiative" in 1999, only to abandon it a few years later. Various attempts to stand up European "rapid reaction" forces have floundered.

Most European countries also commit more than half of what little they do spend on defense to soldier salaries and benefits. Equipment and training are shortchanged. Belgium devotes 74% to personnel; the U.S. 30.6%. Europeans lack cargo planes and helicopters to enable troops to get to, and move within, far-off conflict zones. In 2007, the U.S. deployed 14% of its troops in overseas operations, Europe 4%.

Such relative strategic weakness has made the Europeans more dependent on the American security umbrella, even as they resent it. But it also makes Europeans more disposed to avoid confrontation with adversaries like Saddam Hussein or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. As Henry Kissinger has put it, European leaders are no longer able to ask their people to make major sacrifices.

The overlooked culprit here is the rise of the modern welfare state. Since World War II and especially from the 1960s, Europe has built elaborate domestic income-maintenance programs, with government-run health care, pensions and jobless benefits. These are hugely expensive, requiring high taxes and government spending that is a huge proportion of GDP. The nearby table compares the so-called tax wedge across nations, which is one measure of the relative burdens to finance cradle-to-grave entitlements.

One consequence has been slower growth in Europe, relative to the U.S. and China, with less tax revenue to spend on everything. Another result is that welfare spending has crowded out defense spending. The political imperative of health care and pensions always trumps defense spending, save perhaps in a hot war. Europe may never again be able to muster public support for a defense buildup of the kind the U.S. undertook to end the Cold War in the 1980s, or even the smaller surge after 9/11.

The tragic irony of this year is that Democrats are rushing the U.S. down this same primrose entitlement path. With ObamaCare certain to eat up several more percentage points of GDP as it inevitably expands, we will take a giant step toward European social priorities.

For many Democrats, this is precisely the goal. Many Europeans, such as those at the Financial Times, will also welcome America's relative decline. But we doubt the American people fully understand what such a gilded entitlement cage means for our national vitality, or for our ability to defend U.S. interests at home and abroad.

The chart nearby shows the change in the share of U.S. federal spending on defense and domestic programs across recent decades. The upward blips in defense outlays occurred during Vietnam, the Reagan buildup and post-9/11. But the overall trend has been to spend less of the budget on defense. Add the stimulus, ObamaCare, a new entitlement for college and other Democratic plans, and the defense squeeze will only tighten. Higher taxes and borrowing may allow guns and butter to co-exist for a while. But over time, the welfare state will defeat the Pentagon here, as it has in Europe.

President Obama's domestic agenda may well mean that his successors lack the option to deploy 100,000 troops to Afghanistan, or to some other future trouble spot. This is the way superpowers lose their superiority.

Over the longer run, to my own estimated departure date of 2039, spending on health care rises from 16 percent to 33 percent of GDP (some of the money presumably is going to keep me from expiring even sooner). But spending on everything other than health, Social Security, and interest payments drops from 12 percent to 8.4 percent.

The Foreign Office refused to discuss the funding but privately officials confirmed the money was cut amid vain hopes that the Americans would foot the bill instead...

“It was a highly successful mission and the Afghans were getting better every day,” a special forces source said last week. “The paltry sums involved were getting a pretty valuable return.”

Ed Butler, who commanded British troops when they first deployed to Helmand in 2006, said: “It strikes me as pretty counter-intuitive and verging on the ridiculous to cut this funding when the government is stressing the training of Afghan security forces as a way of withdrawing our troops.”

...The Conservatives said it “beggared belief" that the Foreign Office should withdraw funding from what was clearly an important project.

Even the smallest of counter-insurgency programs prove too much of a strain for the British military to sustain.

The next article, U.S. Seeks 10,000 Troops From Its Allies In Afghanistan, shows America’s other allies cannot sustain token troops in Afghanistan, let alone increase force levels.

The United States is scrambling to coax NATO allies to send 10,000 additional troops to Afghanistan as part of President Obama’s strategy for the region. Those countries appear willing to provide fewer than half that number, American and allied officials said Wednesday.

The British government is facing opinion polls showing that around 70 percent of the public favors an early withdrawal...

Germany and France have balked at committing any more forces to a war that has so little public support that they can barely maintain current troop levels...

The Netherlands and Canada have begun discussing plans to pull out. Canadian defense officials told reporters traveling with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates in Halifax last week that they had no intention of sending troops in the future, and that they remained committed to withdrawing by the end of 2011...

Waning public opinion plays an important role in most NATO members’ reluctance to remain in Afghanistan, but I believe the heart of the matter lies in two important facts: Europe can no longer afford to send troops abroad; and they know the US will pick up the slack.

As sun sets in the west, it also rises in the east. China,Japan Boost Defence Ties illustratesas western power quickly retreats once staunch allies are running for cover and seeking other benefactors.

Japan and China yesterday agreed to conduct their first joint military training exercise as ties warm up between the Asian neighbors, which have long argued over a range of issues and have been suspicious of each other

Top defence officials and military officers from both sides will also meet regularly...(and) The joint exercise will be held next year, according to the Japanese Defence Ministry.

Japan knows the Pax America that kept peace across the Pacific for half a century is coming to an end and China’s rising power is fed from America’s and Europe’s decay. They are smartly moving out from under one shadow to another.  US Navy and Air Force power in the region is atrophying, and China is quickly rising, as seen the article Admiral Says PLA's Strength, Intentions Should Be Displayed.

Beijing should not be shy of displaying the full breadth of its growing military power and intentions to the world, a senior naval officer wrote in comments published yesterday.

In a commentary in the Global Times, a newspaper published by party mouthpiece the People’s Daily, Naval Rear Admiral Yang Yi said Beijing should expand its military power and need not hide this from the world.

“We should confidently and overtly tell the US and other countries that China needs to expand its overseas military power because of the continuation of national interests abroad,” wrote Yang, director of the Strategic Studies Institute under the People’s Liberation Army’s National Defence University

...Yang said Sino-US strategic relations were moving from the level of “common interest” to “ balance of power”.

 “The Taiwan issue has been the most sensitive and explosive problem,” he wrote. “This is a friendly reminder to the US – please be careful, careful, careful, and don’t think Beijing won’t dare to declare war with Washington.”

Anthony Wong Dong, president of the International Military Association, an independent grouping of observers based in Macau, said the article was a candid assessment.

These articles show the West can no longer sustain low-intensity combat operations against an enemy clearly bent on their destruction. At the same time, China is drawing traditional allies from the US orbit and brazenly challenging America as the sole military superpower.

They have the money and leverage to do so. We, on the other hand, have vaults full of IOUs and a congress full of fools.

I don’t like the odds.

This morning’s Washington Times heralds the same forces are now at work eroding America’s military might:

...The era of American military dominance, or "Pax Americana," is dwindling as the nation loses its position far atop the global marketplace, a congressional military analyst said Wednesday...

...The new dynamic - in which the U.S. remains a world force, but does not hold the pre-eminent position it attained after World War II - is the result of global financial centers shifting to Asia, said Stephen Daggett, a defense policy and budget specialist for the Congressional Research Service...

..."It seems this administration finds massive amounts of money for bailout and [stimulus spending] but not enough to fund the basic money needed for defensive hardware and personnel," said Rep. Trent Franks, Arizona Republican.

Victor Davis Hansen had a good quote this morning, “...political influence and military power are ultimately predicated on economic strength.”

Our economic strength, like that of Great Britain, is dying as we quickly drowned in a sea of self-induced socialist debt. Only two pillars are keeping us afloat: the fact oil is traded in dollars and the might of the US military protecting the global trade system.

The dollar hangs upon a precipice; it dies overnight if the world turns to another medium for oil trading. Now, our military is about to be cannibalized to feed the socialist beast eating us all alive.

When the US military is gone, depleted in endless wars abroad and cashiered for progressive votes, it will not rise again. We will be naked before our enemies and creditors...one in the same.

The once mighty British Royal Air Force will cut 10,000 personnel, close five bases, and retire the majority of its Harrier and Tornado fighter aircraft. The RAF will reduce its flying programs, ground or mothball major weapons programs such as the Nimrod MR2, Puma helicopter, and Boeing E-3D AWACS.

These cuts are generated by the RAF itself “designed to pre-empt the savage cuts expected as part of the strategic defense review promised by whichever party wins power in next year’s general election.” According to the Times Online “Senior RAF officers believe that whichever party wins the general election it will have to make cuts to defence because of the economic situation.”

The RAF will cease to exist as a strategic force. Why?

Britain is broke. It budget deficit now runs 100 billion pounds, or over 12% of its GDP. The Pound is falling as fast as the dollar. Stand and Poor is threatening to downgrade their debt from AAA to AA. Why does this concern America?

No other European air force ranked with the RAF in its ability to project air power both regionally and globally. The British spend less than 1% of GDP on defense. They have just ceded air defense of Western Europe to the American. Under NATO, Americans are now stuck with the bill.

The UK is the literally “canary in the coal mine.”  Last year, Rep Barney Frank called for almost identical cuts in our military. This level of cuts will come to our shores. Our debt is almost $1.5 trillion, that’s the same 10% ratio as the UK. The national debt just passed $12 TRILLION. Our GDP is only $15 trillion. Translation – we are on the brink of owing more than we are worth. This is called insolvency.

Insolvent nations cannot afford world class militaries. Trading empires without power projection cannot defend their economic interests. Insolvent nations unable to defend their national interests...perish.

America’s deficit and debt are our number one national security issue.

This weekend and over the next month they’ll send their high-powered lobbyist to gain assurances from their pet senators and congressmen that their key programs will remain safe from any future cuts.  Our legislators will try to put on their best face and tell them all is well. All the while they’ll quietly send their staffers to the Pentagon...Those staffers will tell the Pentagon budget planners…to start planning deep cuts. They’ll give these planners draconian bottom lines and tell them to meet them - period...Over the next few months rumors of the deep budget cuts will seep outside the Pentagon. Small programs, big programs – nothing will be sacred...The Air Force will get hit hardest since it’s currently the least favored branch among the political elites.... Don’t hold your breath on a new replacement rescue helicopter...Expect early retirement for various weapons systems...

Let’s see where we stand one month and over a trillion dollars later:

(Leaders) will assure defense contractors defense spending will remain strong: According to Rueters, "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gateson Tuesday struck an upbeat note about the future outlook for U.S. defense spending, citing strong bipartisan support for U.S. national security goals." 

Deep defense cuts: I guess Sec. Gates hasn't been talking to the movers and shakers in the upcoming Democratic congressional super-majority. Two weeks ago this story hit the papers:  "After the November election, Democrats will push for a second economic stimulus package that includes money for the states' stalled infrastructure projects, along with help paying for healthcare expenses, food stamps and extended unemployment benefits, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank said Thursday...(He) also called for a 25 percent cut in military spending, saying the Pentagon has to start choosing from its many weapons programs..."

Congress is already looking for offsets to pay for the bailout and stimulus packages.

 'Big programs, small programs, nothing will be sacred'…expect early retirement for various weapon systems’: According to Inside Defense and the Air Force Times, the service will cut over 300 frontline fighter aircraft by 2010, almost a decade ahead of schedule. This is about 15% of the services fighter force, significant by any standard.

Don’t hold your breath on a new rescue helicopter:  On 23 October the Washington Times reported the Air Force postponed awarding the CSAR-X helicopter until sometime next year, leaving it for the next presidential administration. The tanker is also now delayed until the next administration is seated.

1. After the election the Pentagon likely faces an openly hostile congress and administration in time of active war. Rep. Barney Frank’s 25% cut comment is a clear message of things to come.
2. Never has the Pentagon had to maintain a sustained forward force posture and active combat operations while America was so deep in debt (public and private).
3. Never has so much of that debt been held by potential hostile powers. He who holds the debt makes the rules.
4. Never has America experienced a deep recession as a consumer, not manufacturing or farming, economy. The Pentagon keeps many of America’s remaining heavy industry on life support, what happens to them in a shrinking economy and lower defense spending is uncertain.
5. The Pentagon has yet to factor in the new realities of global free trade into its acquisitions or defense posture. Its current budgeting and acquisitions framework hasn’t fundamentally changed since America was a creditor nation and General Motors ruled the world.
6. Never has the Pentagon had to rely of foreign sources, many potentially hostile for three critical items: funding (via investment in US debt), energy, and critical technologies. This is the true national security issue of our time.
7. What happens if we enter a period of increased inflation due to our current massive bailout and stimulus spending? This is a real possibility. A severely weakened dollar will discourage foreign (i.e. Chinese) investment in the debt & dollar. Inflation makes everything more expensive – like fuel for fighter jets or computer chips for guidance systems. A defense budget passed one year may assume a 5% inflation rate, but face 10% inflation when executed. Though the government doesn’t officially factor it in, energy is one of the biggest drivers for actual inflation.
8. Never has the Pentagon had to rely on an all-volunteer force during times of sustained combat operations. This has resulted in enormous personnel costs for a relatively small force. The only good news here is a poor economy makes for good recruiting and gives the Pentagon more flexibility in reigning in benefits.

All of these factors will come into play in the next 24 months and beyond to reshape how America defends herself and her global interests. I won’t venture anymore predictions other than hold on…its going to be a bumpy ride.

 I’m interrupting the series ‘Fixing the Air Force’ because I fear recent events may have made fixing the US Air Force an almost impossible task. The World has changed. I think what we saw this week was a bigger event in America’s history than 9/11. It will have even greater consequences which must be addressed. The following are the author's opinions only.  

Last week the US Government absorbed almost a trillion dollars of the most noxious corporate debt imaginable. To put it in perspective, the government has an annual operating budget of about three trillion dollars and only takes in about 2.7 trillion in revenue. This new debt is equivalent to almost three annual defense budgets! Overnight, the US federal debt leapt by at least a ten percent. Whatever budget estimates and expectations Pentagon leadership had up to this point can be thrown out. It’s a new fiscal ball game.

In my article, “Entitlements Threaten Defense Spending” (Townhall Magazine, September 2008) I likened entitlement spending, like Medicare, to a tsunami of red ink poised to crush the defense budget. With this week’s unprecedented corporate bailout packages our nation effectively ran out to meet that giant wave.  If the republic is to survive something will have to give.

That something will be defense, the biggest slice of the non-discretionary federal budget. Congress and the next president will have to cut federal spending in order to service this new debt. If they don’t, they risk potentially destroying America’s currency and credit rating – bad, very bad. 

Those staffers will tell the Pentagon budget planners (those working on something called the ‘POM’) to start planning deep cuts. They’ll give these planners draconian bottom lines and tell them to meet them - period. The planners will start a series of budget drills and the real fun begins.

Over the next few months rumors of the deep budget cuts will seep outside the Pentagon. Small programs, big programs – nothing will be sacred. The defense budget will be so different next year it as to be almost unrecognizable.

The Air Force will get hit hardest since it’s currently the least favored branch among the political elites. Since the new aerial tanker was punted to the next administration it’s uniquely vulnerable. I believe by this time next year it will be on indefinite hold and some token funds will be thrown at the old KC-135 to extend its life a few more years.  Don’t hold your breath on a new replacement rescue helicopter. I believe that program is doomed now. Expect early retirement for various weapons systems those with high operating costs, perhaps like the B-1 bomber.  

I cannot speak to the specifics of the other services, but they’ll get hit hard, too. Even the Army and the Marines, the most engaged in combat operations, will feel the heat. It won’t just be weapons acquisition programs, either. Personnel program cuts will be close behind.

I’m not talking about tweaks in the system, but sudden and draconian cuts. It will start with pronouncements on cutting travel costs. Then they’ll cut medical costs in new and painful ways. Tricare will eventually pay pennies on the dollar as co-pays for dependant medical care skyrockets. There will be drastic rollbacks in retiree medical benefits and huge shake-ups of the retirement system itself. Then the real cuts will begin.

The Navy and Air Force will resume their downward force cuts to unprecedented levels, perhaps in the range of 250,000 for each service. The additional forces added to the Marines and Army since 2003 will be rescinded. There may even be serious consideration of consolidating the services. I believe in 3-5 years we’ll find the military 25% smaller…at least.

With all these force cuts, how will we fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

We won’t. With this new, staggering debt load members of both political parties will accelerate our departure from Iraq and even Afghanistan, regardless of the political and military consequences. Only a token naval and air power component will remain in the Gulf Region to protect the oil. Expect withdrawal of forces from most of the Pacific and Europe as well.

  (The following is a work of fiction. The characters are not based on any real person, living or dead. Only the lessons are real)

 

 

Happening now somewhere deep in the Kremlin basement…

An old man, dressed in a dated brown suit, slowly walks down a dimly lit hallway. His footsteps, steady and heavy, echo hollowly against bare cement. Rows of faded ribbons and medals hang from his chest, proudly topped with a Soviet flag lapel pin. He carries a newspaper folded neatly under his arm. Every few paces he emerges into ruddy yellow light cast from bare light bulbs. The harsh light hardens his granite face and reflects off a balding head. Each light dimly illuminates photos of forgotten military men, stern heroes of a receding age. He comes to a vault-like metal door covered in chipped green paint. Wrinkled hands search empty pockets for a long-unused key. He scowls and softly mutters obscenities.

I’ve come all this way and forgot the damn key!

 

Desperate, he tries the door knob. The heavy chamber door cracks open, sending a ray of soft orange light into the hallway.

“It’s open,” comes a deep, ancient voice.

Surprised and curious, the old man pushes the door open all the way. The room is large, the air is stale. The faint odor conjures strong memories and they rush over him with unexpected power. He steadies himself against the door and slowly takes in the room. Other than a thick layer of dust, the room is unchanged, frozen in time.

The walls are lined with maps from a lost world. Each is blanketed with labels proclaiming the locations and strength long mothballed air armies and defenses. Chairs and tables were right where he last remembered them, as if waiting for their analysts to return. Only the paper was gone, but its dry, stale smell remained. Ancient computers lined one wall. Without magnetic tape reels they looked like eyeless robots.

They might as well have been blind, they couldn’t help us see our own doom, he thinks.

In the center of the room sits another old man. He is dressed in a black suit, but only a Soviet lapel pin rest upon his narrow chest. A well-worn cane rests against an outstretched leg. A broad smile and twinkling eyes lift his sagging face.

 “Sergey! I…I…how long have you been here?” says the old man standing at the door, flabbergasted. 

The man in black gently motions to a half-full bottle of vodka and two glasses on the bare table in front of him.

“It feels like 20 years. Come and sit with me, Leonid, I’ve been waiting. I’m sorry, but I broke the seal of the vodka. I’ve always been a little impatient,” He motions to his leg and cane self-consciously, “Please forgive me for not getting up to greet you properly, but it took everything out of me just getting down here.”

Leonid comes forward and clasps his old friend’s hand, “This is a pleasant, if not suspicious, surprise.” He raises a bushy eyebrow at the empty chair and vodka, “How did you know I would be here? No…stop. Don’t tell me. I should know better than ask an old spy about his craft.”

Sergey laughs deeply, which quickly turns to a fit of coughing. It takes a few minutes for him to catch his breath, “It warms my heart to see you, but don’t make me laugh too hard or it might stop! Anyway, it wasn’t hard to deduce you would be here today. You air force types are predictable.”

Leonid settles into the folding wooden chair across the table across from Sergey and tosses his paper onto the bare table. It’s the New York Times, folded over to expose a small, deeply buried, article.

“The US tanker program is delayed again. The Secretary of Defense has stripped control of the program from the service. It may be another year before a winner is selected, if ever.”

Sergey smiles and pours both generous shots of Vodka, they raise their glasses. They smile broadly at each other and tap glasses in a dull clink.

“Success,” says Sergey.

“Success,” responds Leonid.

They down their vodka in one gulp and sit in silence. Sergey contemplates his empty glass while Leonid’s eyes roam around the room. Over 20 years ago intelligence analysts and staff officers busily filled its spaces, assessing NATO and America’s ability to penetrate Soviet air defenses. Specifically, they were tasked to identify and exploit weaknesses in the American Air Force. Leonid was the senior air officer and overall director, Sergey was his KGB counterpart. Together, they covertly plotted the destruction of the mighty American Air Force.

Leonid breaks the silence, “I have not returned here since they shut us down. I thought I still had my key, but I must have misplaced it.”

Sergey doesn’t look up, “I come every year on the anniversary of the program. It may sound pathetic, but it was my finest hour. It’s all been downhill since. I asked Vladimir for a job, but he doesn’t return my calls. Ungrateful punk! I taught him everything he knows.” 

“I am sorry old friend, you deserve better. If there is anything I can do…” Leonid shrugs.

Sergey waves his hand dismissively, “I have a pension and a few investments (and probably drink to much), but I’ll be fine.”

The mood lightens as Leonid recharges both their glasses, “A toast to Sasha!”

They raise their glasses and say together, “Sasha!”

“One day,” Sergey proclaims, “history will give him the credit he deserves. He was the greatest intelligence analyst ever: Soviet, American, British…it doesn’t matter. I only wish he had been an equally good operative.”

“Do not blame yourself, friend. You did your duty sending him into the field, he did his duty by going. Such is the price patriots must pay.”  

Together, they drift back to another world, reliving old times and secret deeds few witnessed and even fewer live to remember.

Sergey begins the journey, “I remember when I first met you. I thought you were a cocky bomber pilot.”

Leonid laughs, “No offense, but I thought KGB types were slime. And I thought Sasha was a…I think the American word is ‘geek.”

Sergey gently chuckles, “No offense taken, old friend. I know KGB types are slime. Ahh, geek, yes, an appropriate word. He was a geek, a wonderful, brilliant geek. Slime, cocky and geek…we three misfits made a good team, eh?”

“No, Sergey, we made history! Sasha’s brainchild is alive and well, slowly and steadily eroding the once great American Air Force. I don’t need classified intelligence reports to see its effectiveness. I only have to read the western news and defense magazines.” He waves his craggy hand dismissively, “I like paper. I have no use for the internet. Click, click click, it’s so impersonal. I read stories like this one about the tanker and shake my head in disbelief. They haven’t started a single successful major weapons program since our plan went into effect. It’s taken them over twenty years to field the F-22. The old B-52 is still their mainstay bomber! We did it, Sergey,” he taps the paper for effect, “and we’re still doing it.”

“Sometimes I can’t believe it myself Leonid. Did you know the American Air Force cannot even buy an updated version of an old helicopter without years of delays? Is this the same air force which put hundreds of F-15s into the skies less than a decade after they saw our Mig-25 thunder over Moscow? I remember the look on your face when you talked about the F-15,” Sergey laughs, “You were terrified.”

“And rightly so! That thing would have made mincemeat of my bombers. We had nothing to challenge it. The Bekka Valley proved me right! I was as equally concerned when you brought me the intelligence on the F-117 and B-2. I knew our entire air defense system was instantly worthless. The American Army and Navy could be dealt with; only their air force could lay our Motherland bare!” Leonid pounds his fist on the table for emphasis, almost spilling the vodka.

“Careful, old bear! I only brought one bottle. You haven’t changed, passionate as usual. Sasha calmed you down, though.”

“Not at first he didn’t! He’d only been on the project for one week when I almost took his head off! I asked him for an analysis of how quickly our design bureaus could field an interceptor and detection system to counter their stealth technology. He comes back that day and says very calmly, ‘Comrade Colonel, we cannot counter their stealth technology. We cannot counter it now, in ten years, or in 50 years.’ I was furious!”

Sergey laughs and wags his finger accusingly, “I seem to remember your response…you almost shot him!”

Leonid crosses his arms and looks defensive, “No, I didn’t. I just wanted to emphasize my point.”

“It didn’t faze him, did it Leonid? He just kept talking. I remember the way your face slackened and then your eyes lit up with understanding at the words he spoke…”

Their conversation gives life to a long dead room, taking them back to that day 23 years ago. Around the old men ghosts of long gone Soviet air defense and long range aviation officers emerge, pouring over charts and intelligence reports. They go unnoticed by the old men talking of yesteryear. The shades study maps of revived NATO forces defending Western Europe. A modernized US Navy encircles the beleaguered Soviet Bloc. American bombers equipped with new cruise missiles roam the globe unchallenged, protected by far-flung fighter bases. Blue pins dot Europe denoting Pershing II missiles which the Soviets can’t counter. The Fulda Gap is now reinforced with freshly built F-16s and A-10s, ready to destroy what was once considered unstoppable Soviet armor. The analysts fret over reports of American made Stinger missiles ravaging Soviet airpower in Afghanistan. Men in civilian clothes read computer printouts showing the American economy exploding while the Soviet economy collapses. In the corner a young lieutenant, a recently assigned errand boy, listens to a bootleg cassette tape of “Thriller” on a clunky Sony Walkman. Eyes closed, he is oblivious to the drama everyone else in the room is witnessing.

 

Leonid (younger, thinner, and with more hair) has his service pistol aimed at the head of a young man in rumpled civilian clothes. The young man looks a little like John Lennon. He pushes up his glasses and confidently addresses Leonid.

 

“You can shoot me if you like, Comrade Colonel, but it will not change the fact, even if we could keep up with the West’s technological advancements (and we can’t) we unequivocally cannot convert our technology to military power at anywhere near their breakneck pace. They have perfected what Eisenhower called the ‘military, industrial complex.’ We have a conversion problem, sir. If we counter stealth, they’ll produce a countermeasure faster than we recognize we’ve been outflanked. They can draw on the emerging global technology market. We can’t because we’re isolated. We fall further behind every day. However, it doesn’t mean we don’t have options. If you put your gun away, Colonel, I can explain those options.”

 

“You have 3 minutes,” Leonid warned, angry at this kid’s arrogance. He put his pistol back in its holster. Everyone in the room resumed breathing and went about their work.

 

“I only need one minute. We cannot match the Americans head-to-head. More importantly, we shouldn’t even try. If we do, we’ll play into their hands and they’ll spend us into our grave. I ask you, sir, to consider a radically different and much cheaper approach. You are a pilot, Comrade Colonel, so I’ll put it in words you can understand.

 

American fighter pilots talk about getting inside your opponents decision making cycle, they call it the OODA loop, which means ‘Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act’. The United States has a very tight research, development and acquisition cycle, fueled by vast quantities of free-market cash. Remember, they went from a speech about going to the moon to actually arriving there in less than 8 years. What if, however, we throw a wrench in their OODA loop?”

 

Leonid was intrigued. Unobserved in a dim corner a younger and darker Sergey listened. He brought Sasha into the project after reading his dossier.  He’d let this conversation play out, confident of its outcome.

 

Sasha moved over to the table in the center of the room. He rolled out several pieces of paper and leaned over them, drawing Leonid’s attention to key documents.

 

“The Americans are reorganizing their military in something called ‘The Goldwater-Nichols Act.” Operationally, it’s brilliant. Logistically, it’s severely flawed. American newspapers and television make a great deal over Pentagon waste. They love to talk about $500 dollar toilet seats and $100 hammers. Of course their military acquisitions system is inefficient, what government process isn’t? They hope this reorganization will solve this. I contend it will have the opposite effect. It has the potential to bring the American acquisition system to its knees…with just a little help from us, of course.”

 

Leonid wanted to hear more, but hid his growing enthusiasm. There was something about where this young man was going which made sense.

 

“Go on.”

 

“Right now, each of their military branches can define their own requirements and, if congress approves, go out and buy their own equipment. Yes, it’s somewhat inefficient as of creates unnecessary duplication and hinders joint operations. Hereafter, weapon systems, like fighters and bombers, will have to meet rigid joint requirements and approvals. They’ve just added additional layers of bureaucracy, time, paperwork, and the most critical element of all …expense! It greatly expands their OODA loop and slows their ability to adapt.” Sasha leaned forward, smiled, and quietly whispered to Leonid, “Sir, it makes them more like us!”

 

Sergey emerged from the shadows, hands in the pockets of his black leather coat “Leonid, there’s more. He’s only scratched the surface.”

 

“You knew about this?” Leonid said, dismayed.

 

“Of course,” Sergey said irately, “Would you expect anything less?!”

 

Sasha continued, speaking quickly and passionately, “If we act quickly we can place operatives in sensitive posts in the Pentagon and Capitol Hill. They will plant a few more…uh…‘details’ into the legislation. This bill is poison, we only need to make it a more effective poison. I think we can stretch their major weapon system acquisition time out to 10, maybe 15 years from its current 5 to 8. If the Americans are slowed down it gives us time to catch up.”

 

Sasha shuffled the papers and came up with some charts, “ I call this plan Operation CHOLESTEROL. It aggravates the inherent flaws in Goldwater-Nichols by clogging the healthy pace of American military acquisitions with bureaucratic fat. We will make their military heart beat harder and harder for the same amount of work.”

 

Sergey chimed in again, “This will aggravate a looming situation of the American’s own doing, one which we believe they will ignore until it’s too late. Sasha, tell him the part you told me last night, about the money.”

 

Leonid looked back and forth, obviously unhappy he wasn’t in on any of this.

 

“And what situation will that be?” Leonid queried.

 

Sasha threw some more charts across the table, “Look at the US population projection between now and 2010. As you can see, the post war ‘Baby Boom’ generation, now in their late and early 40s, will start retiring about then.”

 

“So? What does this mean to me? That’s twenty five years from now. Why should I care?” Leonid wasn’t following.

 

“Think about it. They have massive debt obligations and Reagan has so far been unsuccessful in controlling entitlement spending. He’s borrowing money for his military buildup and I assess the American congress will remain unwilling to cut entitlement spending for the foreseeable future.  This will be their true undoing. Look at this chart, in about 20 years almost one third of their population will dependent on government pensions and medical care. That’s almost 80 million people, Comrade Colonel,” Sasha gave a nervous little laugh, “They are good capitalists, but poor socialists! Sir, in only a few years they won’t be able to afford military modernization. Bombers will be their last concern as this will lead to a complete paralysis of their government and economy. ” 

 

Leonid looked solemnly at the printouts on the table and thought about the Soviet Union’s current dire straights, “I fear we are poor socialists, too, my little friend. Please, go on.”

 

 Sasha continued, “The implications are staggering! If we can slow down their technological-to-military conversion cycle, even a little, they soon won’t be able to buy new weapon systems. We help choke off their own heart, they dry up the life blood of cash themselves. This will buy time for the Soviet Union to solve its own problems and allow us to resume the global revolution.”

 

For the next few hours the pilot, the spy and the geek hashed out the details and set Operation CHOLESTEROL into motion.

 

“So its agreed,” Leonid proclaimed, “It is in my authority to initiate low scale operations, and this project fits neatly into my mandate. Sasha, as the grand architect I want project details on my desk in the morning. Sergey, you will be responsible for all field operations, of course.

 

“Of course,” Sergey responded. He and Sasha exchanged knowing glances.

 

“Comrades, this is classified at the highest level. Details will not leave this room. Nor do I need to tell you how dire our situation is. Soviet Man must take the long view, and this plan does that. This will be our advantage over the capitalists. I just hope we have the time to see it bear fruit. Good luck gentlemen.”

 

With that Leonid turned to leave. Sergey and Sasha returned their attention the papers on the table and began planning Operation CHOLESTEROL in earnest. Colonel Leonid walked by the lieutenant sitting in the corner listening to the Walkman. The young man was softly singing along in English with Michael Jackson’s “Billy Jean,” which was clearly and loudly leaking around the foam earphones. He was oblivious to the imposing presence of a Colonel of SovietLongRange Aviation looming above him. Irritated, Leonid snatched the contraption from his ears. Surprised and terrified, the lieutenant snapped to attention.

 

“Is this yours?” Leonid asked calmly, examining the cassette player.

 

“Yes, Comrade Colonel!” the shaking young officer shouted.

 

“Do you like western music? What is it called…the ‘disco boogie’? Do you like to disco boogie?”

 

“Uhh…yes…kind of, Comrade Colonel,” He said nervously, afraid he would answer incorrectly.

 

Leonid gazed down at the Walkman dangling in his hand. Somewhere deep inside he feared the little contraption. It was an alien, an unwelcome invader - light, compact and flashy.  It intruded upon his gloomy, gray metal sanctuary. The Russian instinctively knew the mix of Japanese technology and American culture was the future. He briefly considered stomping it under his heel.

“This boogie music, it’s not all its cracked up to be, eh?”

 

“No, sir.”

 

“What is your purpose here?”

 

“I’m an air defense pilot recently reassigned to your staff, sir!”

 

“A fighter pilot,” Leonid grunted, “That figures, I should shoot you instead. Keep this damn thing out of my vault. Carry on,” he handed it back, shook his head and left.

 

The ghosts fade and the years pass. Once again, two old men sit and drink vodka at the same table where Operation CHOLESTEROL was hatched years ago.

 

Sergey nods, “I read where the outgoing American air force secretary pondered if the acquisitions process was ‘too complicated’. What an understatement!”

Leonid nods, “A very similar statement was made by their outgoing air force chief of staff months ago. When asked about the floundering rescue helicopter program he indicated the selection was ‘out of his hands’, the purview of some committee. Imagine, the most powerful man in the American Air Force unable to influence the selection of a critical weapon system. These are not the same Americans who defeated us.”

“The old world passed away and yet Operation CHOLESTEROL still wreaks havoc upon our old adversary. I did the math the other day, over 80% of all their current manned systems were bought prior to CHOLESTEROL. We did pretty good, eh?” Sergey’s sagging face carries a wry, knowing grin.

Leonid downs another shot of Vodka. The bottle is almost gone, “Bah! We were too late, Sergey. Perestroika, Glasnost, the fall of Berlin. We were the doomed ones, not the Americans. It was all for nothing. Any damage Operation CHOLESTEROL continues to inflict is meaningless spite. And Sasha, what was his sacrifice for? I sent him to America to jumpstart the operation only to have the CIA kill him. For what?”

Sergey is still grinning over the table at Leonid. Leonid lifts a bushy eyebrow suspiciously.

“What aren’t you telling me, you slimy old fox?”

Sergey reaches into his coat and produces an envelope. He tosses it on the table in front of Leonid, who slowly picks it up never taking his eyes off the spy. It is simply addressed “Director, Operation CHOLESTEROL.” He opened it. It contains a photo and three neatly folded papers. He examines each one at a time. The first piece of paper has only a series of numbers printed on it. He looks up at Sergey, but says nothing. He opens the next folded paper. It’s a hand written letter. He reads in growing disbelief…

Comrade Colonel,

            If you’re reading this then, once again, Sergey was correct. You returned to the vault on an anniversary of the day you pulled the gun on me (for which I’m still waiting for an apology). I will apologize first, however, for deceiving you. As you must now realize I was never assassinated by the CIA. I’ve been living anonymously in America for the last 19 years. This was necessary, as it was necessary to deceive you. The KGB had moles within our cell. Your ignorance was your shield.

            Operation CHOLESTEROL was a sham. My analysis was correct, but the Americans didn’t need our help pushing them into the abyss. They did it quite well on their own. I knew this back then, though I didn’t really believe they would let this go on for so long. No, our national suicide was a more immediate problem, and voicing such concerns back then could get one shot. Sergey and I knew the Soviet Union was rapidly collapsing.  Operation CHOLESTEROL was the means to assure our security in a post-Soviet world.  

Sergey talked you into allowing me to go to the US to help him set up the operation. Once I was in country he arranged my ‘assassination’. In reality, I siphoned the KGB seed money and went underground. Sergey provided me with a false identity and I began my new life as a very successful business man and investor. Sergey maintained my cover until the Soviet Union collapsed. Our plan was to come out of hiding once democracy took root and bring you in. Unfortunately, the ghosts of the KGB exist to this day. Their reach is far and lethal, friend. Far and lethal. Sergey stayed back, providing cover while I safely made our fortune in America.

In the envelope you’ll find a number for a Swiss bank account. Comrade Colonel, you are now filthy rich. I’ve done well with the paltry sum you gave us to sabotage the Americans all those years ago. Sergey has his cut, too. If you’re curious, you’ll find the latest product of one of my capitalist investments in the envelope.  Funny thing, I got the idea on the same day we pitched Operation CHOLESTEROL.

Now that you know the secret we’ve kept from you all these years, your shield of ignorance is gone. It would be best if you leave Russia before your new found wealth becomes public knowledge. Sergey has information which you might find helpful.

You were right when you said we were poor socialists. It was obvious where we were heading back then, but politics blinded us. It is obvious where the Americans are heading, too. I hope they wake up and realize they make poor socialists. We’re invested in their future now.

For both of our sakes, we will never meet again. I wish you good fortune, Comrade Colonel.

 

Sasha

 

Leonid puts down the letter and pulls out the photo. It shows Sasha, almost unchanged except for a slight tinge of gray in his long hair. He is shirtless and tanned, bathed in dazzling midday sunlight. He sits cross legged on the deck of an expensive boat. Smiling with pearly white teeth, he’s holding up a bottle of beer, surrounded by beautiful young women in bikini bottoms and wet t-shirts sporting the words “Girls Gone Wild 2005”. Behind him was an emerald sea dotted with white sailboats.

“Geek,” Disgusted, Leonid sighs and tosses the photo to the table.

Pale, he looks up at Sergey, now standing. Leaning against his cane the old spy hands him a sealed plain manila document folder.  

 

“Inside you will find a new identity, passport, and airline tickets. What you do with them is your choice as they cannot be traced back to me or Sasha. This is where we say goodbye, old friend.” Sergey looks around and grimaces at the room, “This place is a tomb. Do not linger here long, it’s not healthy.”

With that Sergey limps to the door.

“Where will you go? What will you do?” Leonid calls after him.

The old Cold Warrior turns and smiles, “I don’t know. Maybe I will move to Montana and raise rabbits. Goodbye, Leonid.” Sergey turns and walks through the open door down the long hallway.

Leonid is in shock, reeling at new world thrust upon him. He reaches into the envelope and removes the last folded paper. A small, silver device, no bigger than a credit card, slides out and clatters onto the table. Connected to the device is a thin white wire terminating in tiny earphones. He has heard of these, though he didn’t know how they worked.

“YOU OWN PART OF THIS COMPANY. PRESS THE BUTTON WITH THE SINGLE ARROW AT THE BOTTOM AND PUT THE EAR BUDS IN YOUR EARS” is written on the paper it was wrapped in. Leonid fumbles with the ear buds and finds the play button. An I-POD logo flashes on the tiny screen followed by a crisp, clear image of a young Michael Jackson walking down a sidewalk which lights up wherever he steps. The familiar refrain of “Billy Jean” begins. The video from another era plays in crisp, digital quality. Leonid pulls off the ear buds and looks up at Sergey’s retreating figure as it vanishes and reappears as under each bare light bulb, shadows following his footsteps. He finally disappears forever into the darkness beyond.

Boeing has won its protest and the new aerial tanker faces years of delays. KC-135 crews and maintainers will fly and fix antiques for the foreseeable future.

Shameful.

The U.S. Air Force is in dire straits, an organization in crisis by any measure. The warning signs are shocking:

- In 2002 it mismanaged the KC-X competition resulting in a senior acquisitions official going to jail.

- The CSARX rescue helicopter competition, delayed for over two years, is still mired in political and legal battles.

- The service cut almost 15% of its total manpower in order to modernize equipment, only to end up with a smaller force and little modernization. 

- Another high ranking acquisitions official committed suicide over another brewing scandal.

- The Air Force unknowingly loaded nuclear weapons on a bomber and flew it across the country.

- It lost track of other nuclear components, mistakenly sending them to Taiwan.  

- The service can only buy half the F-22s it needs to fulfill its stated requirements.

- Recently, the chief of staff and secretary of the Air Forces were sacked, the first time in history the two top positions in a military service were simultaneously fired.

- It lost track of another 1000 nuclear weapons components.

- Now, it botched up the new aerial tanker contract again.

From 1990 to 2012 the service squandered its only opportunity to modernize. It’s facing the same looming budget disaster as the rest of the nation. Starting in 2012 Social Security and Medicare will start sucking the federal budget dry, closing the door on major force modernization. Between entitlements and endless wars the service will find it nearly impossible to build the 21^st century force it so desperately needs. They are in hole they may not be able to climb out of.

Was it strictly the services fault? No, but most of the blame falls squarely in their lap. How did it come to this?

Lack of Strategic Thinking. The service rewards tactical thinking, focusing only one or two budget cycles in the future.

Lack of Common Identity. There is no common cultural lynchpin which binds all Airmen the way the other services are unified. The Air Force has a fractured culture for two reasons: it’s a service of ‘program managers,’ stove-piped into specific career fields and weapons systems; and because most ‘Airmen’ have nothing to do with aviation.

The service lost control to a self-serving bureaucracy. The Air Force’s requirements and acquisitions system serves congress and their lobbyist. It serves the contractors. It serves the armies of civil servants in Washington and the Pentagon. The system serves everyone except the warfighters in the field and therefore, in the long run truly serves the interest of our adversaries. Our ‘peer rivals’ only need to wait us out as the bureaucracy does nothing and our fleet rots. 

The Air Force has become a service of stewards, not innovators. With few exceptions, the service no longer blazes new aviation trails. The few new programs in existence were started many years ago and many of those are in trouble. It’s not just a question of funding, but of cultural willingness to take risks.

Lack of combat aviation leadership. Deployments and combat are not the same, this distinction is blurred in the service. Fewer and fewer people running the show and pulling the levers of power are combat veterans, let alone combat aviators. Being combat aircrew actually hinders one’s chances of advancement – they are just too busy to ‘fill the squares.’ Why is this important? Combat aviators approach problems with a purpose driven perspective. Many bureaucrats running the service today are process driven and don’t understand those flying the front lines. Basic aviation concepts, from the way aircrew solve problems to fight battles, are alien to most Airmen.

Rampant Careerism. Way too many officers are too concerned with punching a ticket and moving on. Innovation and change require courage to make mistakes. Mistakes kill careers. Therefore, most play it safe, move on, and move up. Challenging times call for big, bold decisions. Instead, our staffs are filled with bureaucrats tending aging fleets and floundering programs. 

I am beginning to doubt the US Air Force can endure as a separate military service.

These are tough words, but these are tough times.

As a young lieutenant I was an intelligence officer assigned to Headquarters, Strategic Air Command. My mentors, grizzled Cold Warriors and experienced analysts, predicted the Soviet Union’s fall. They were certain its decrepit political and economic systems couldn’t withstand the tidal waves of a rapidly changing world. It was not if, they said, but how and when. Watching their assessments come to pass was the most formative event of my early career. It taught me these lessons: nothing is invincible or invulnerable, even superpowers; and great human events can be reasonably predicted in a logical and quantifiable way. Two examples come to mind.

In 1997 my squadron’s intelligence officer, a lieutenant, stood in front of a photo of Osama Bin Laden and told us this relatively unknown figure was an evil genius who would cause America great harm. In 2004 Dr. Fred E. Foldarvy, a renowned economist, assessed the housing bubble would burst and bottom out in 2008, followed by a significant recession. Years in advance their predictions were fairly accurate. Social, economic, and political crises don’t ‘just happen,' they can be, and often are, accurately predicted.    

Today, wise men are sounding another warning, one concerning America’s military future. Recently, Colonel Robert Suminsby, Kirtland Air Force Base Commander, made these public statements to a group of local civic leaders, “If left unchecked, the growth of spending on Social Security and Medicare will eventually crush the defense budget…If we don’t buy new aircraft and satellites now, we simply won’t have an Air Force in another 20 years.” The facts support him. Even the President’s own 2008 budget calls this situation “unsustainable.”

Between now and 2030, entitlement programs, primarily Medicare, will dominate the federal budget to the eventual exclusion of almost all other spending, including defense. 

These programs began in the mid-1960s when senior citizens were less than 10% of the U.S. population and over 5 workers supported each retiree. Today, Baby Boomers (27% of the population) are starting to retire, just as healthcare costs soar 6.9% annually.  Now, only 3 workers support each retiree. In 2007, 41% of Medicare funding came from the same general revenue as defense. In three years Medicare starts operating in the red and will siphon even more money from general revenue.America’s retiree pool is rising, the labor pool is decreasing, and medical costs are skyrocketing. If this equation continues unabated by 2030, with only about 2 taxpaying workers per retiree, Medicare will devour most federal revenue and starve defense spending.

This is clearly a defense issue. Many serving today will feel its full effects. No one associated with America’s defense will escape its reach. The coming Medicare spending crisis is a tsunami and will swallow everything in its path. Our ability to modernize, sustain, and employ military forces will be crippled. Quality of life, healthcare, and retirement benefits will be devastated.  As you read this, the water is rapidly receding to the horizon where a giant wave of red ink is looming. We are neither invincible nor invulnerable in the face of this coming crisis, but we can avert disaster if we examine the facts and heed the warnings.