Years ago, I was lucky enough to fly an air force helicopter to the Borger Texas Air Show. A small Panhandle ranching and oil town near Amarillo, Borger represents the best of American patriotism and hospitality. 

Under the hot, dusty summer sun the good people of Borger gathered around our HH-60G Pavehawk. They shook our hands, asked questions, and proudly told us about their sons and daughters serving in the military. As the day wore on and the show drew to a close, the crew and I prepared the helicopter for departure. That’s when a grizzled old-timer, a working man in dirty steel-toed boots and worn overalls, approached through the thinning crowd. Holding his hand was a wide-eyed little boy, no more than six.

“Sir,” the old man asked softly, “Would it be alright if my grandson sits in your helicopter?”

I helped the boy, his eyes beaming, into the pilot’s seat. “It’s not my helicopter, sir,” I replied to the old man, “You helped pay for it.”

This tax season it’s important to remind ourselves the defense of the nation is paid for by its hardworking citizens. Freedom isn’t free, in fact last year it cost our nation over $512 billion dollars in the baseline defense budget alone. While Americans get a fantastic return on their money, its still important for servicemen and women to remember it’s not the military’s money, nor the government’s money – it’s the people’s money, entrusted to their volunteer warriors to defend them and our way of life.

A close friend of mine, a veteran who owns a very successful software development firm, once confided to me how much his small business paid in taxes. The amount was stunning. It’s hard to understand how small businesses survive under such crushing tax burdens. My friend, and millions like him, not only pay for the military’s bombs and bullets, but paychecks, retirements, fuel, dependent medical costs, recreation centers, and absolutely everything else in the massive Defense Department and Veterans Administration. He grumbles about his taxes, but makes it clear he supports every dime spent on the military. He’s not alone.

The military is one of America’s must trusted institutions. Many dislike the federal government, but revere the armed forces.  Since Vietnam the military has fought hard to earn it’s cherished place in the hearts of the American people. This respect must be earned every day, not only in how we conduct ourselves on the battlefield, but how we act as stewards of the public’s money.

In 1953 President Eisenhower said this about defense spending, “This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.”  Eisenhower knew better than anyone the need for strong defense, but clearly understood military spending takes resources from the part of the economy which creates real wealth. Every dollar the Pentagon spends is a dollar my friend can’t use to hire someone, or a dollar that old oil worker in Borger Texas can’t spend on his grandson. 

Times are tough and many Americans are struggling to make ends meet as they square their tax accounts with Uncle Sam before April 15th. They give the military those hard earned dollars willingly, with both pride and patriotism. They only ask the military spend it wisely and be good stewards of the resources bestowed upon them. So the next time a grateful citizen thanks you for your service, thank them for their support.

According to CQ.com the Pentagon wants $450 billion in more spending over the next five years:

The new estimate, which has not been publicly released, would raise the fiscal 2010 budget number announced by the administration this year from $527 billion to $584 billion, not counting operations costs for the ongoing wars. 

Experts note that releasing such documents in the twilight of an administration is a well-worn tactic, and that incoming presidents often disregard such guidance in order to pursue their own priorities…

But the numbers also seem to contradict the National Defense Strategy released recently by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, which called for tough tradeoffs in spending in an environment of limited resources…

The numbers also contradict reality. America is hemorrhaging wealth and the tax base will not support increased federal spending – defense or otherwise. The only way to raise new revenue is to borrow it or print it. Either option is bad news for inflation, interest rates and jobs.

I fully stand by my analysis Pentagon planners are most likely conducting serious budget cutting drills in expectations of massive roll-backs in discretionary spending in next budget cycle. My assessment is backed up by a 9 October Miami Herald news story:

With the U.S. economy in crisis and military spending at its highest level since World War II, military officials and experts are worrying that America may have to start reining in defense spending…

Eight years of borrowing to pay for the Iraq and Afghan wars, coupled with an aging baby boomer population, growing healthcare costs and a push to enlarge the Army could force legislators to make tough decisions about which needs should take priority, and the next president to reassess how much the military can do…Congress' decision earlier this month to approve a $700 billon bailout for the financial industry adds to the strain on the federal budget, and the stock market decline and the credit crunch could slow economic activity and eliminate jobs, which in turn could reduce tax revenues.

Pay close attention to the sentence “push to enlarge the Army.” If they Army adds 30,000 soldiers over the next 24 months as originally planned I believe the Pentagon will slice portions of the Air Force and Navy to pay for it. The only other place to find additional cash is medical and retirement benefits…and congress won’t let that happen

Air Force modernization and re-capitalization is about to come to a sudden and brutal halt.  

Last week the US Government absorbed almost a trillion dollars of the most noxious corporate debt imaginable. To put it in perspective, the government has an annual operating budget of about three trillion dollars and only takes in about 2.7 trillion in revenue. This new debt is equivalent to almost three annual defense budgets! Overnight, the US federal debt leapt by at least a ten percent. Whatever budget estimates and expectations Pentagon leadership had up to this point can be thrown out. It’s a new fiscal ball game.

In my article, “Entitlements Threaten Defense Spending” (Townhall Magazine, September 2008) I likened entitlement spending, like Medicare, to a tsunami of red ink poised to crush the defense budget. With this week’s unprecedented corporate bailout packages our nation effectively ran out to meet that giant wave.  If the republic is to survive something will have to give.

That something will be defense, the biggest slice of the non-discretionary federal budget. Congress and the next president will have to cut federal spending in order to service this new debt. If they don’t, they risk potentially destroying America’s currency and credit rating – bad, very bad. 

Those staffers will tell the Pentagon budget planners (those working on something called the ‘POM’) to start planning deep cuts. They’ll give these planners draconian bottom lines and tell them to meet them - period. The planners will start a series of budget drills and the real fun begins.

Over the next few months rumors of the deep budget cuts will seep outside the Pentagon. Small programs, big programs – nothing will be sacred. The defense budget will be so different next year it as to be almost unrecognizable.

The Air Force will get hit hardest since it’s currently the least favored branch among the political elites. Since the new aerial tanker was punted to the next administration it’s uniquely vulnerable. I believe by this time next year it will be on indefinite hold and some token funds will be thrown at the old KC-135 to extend its life a few more years.  Don’t hold your breath on a new replacement rescue helicopter. I believe that program is doomed now. Expect early retirement for various weapons systems those with high operating costs, perhaps like the B-1 bomber.  

I cannot speak to the specifics of the other services, but they’ll get hit hard, too. Even the Army and the Marines, the most engaged in combat operations, will feel the heat. It won’t just be weapons acquisition programs, either. Personnel program cuts will be close behind.

I’m not talking about tweaks in the system, but sudden and draconian cuts. It will start with pronouncements on cutting travel costs. Then they’ll cut medical costs in new and painful ways. Tricare will eventually pay pennies on the dollar as co-pays for dependant medical care skyrockets. There will be drastic rollbacks in retiree medical benefits and huge shake-ups of the retirement system itself. Then the real cuts will begin.

The Navy and Air Force will resume their downward force cuts to unprecedented levels, perhaps in the range of 250,000 for each service. The additional forces added to the Marines and Army since 2003 will be rescinded. There may even be serious consideration of consolidating the services. I believe in 3-5 years we’ll find the military 25% smaller…at least.

With all these force cuts, how will we fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

We won’t. With this new, staggering debt load members of both political parties will accelerate our departure from Iraq and even Afghanistan, regardless of the political and military consequences. Only a token naval and air power component will remain in the Gulf Region to protect the oil. Expect withdrawal of forces from most of the Pacific and Europe as well.

Shameful.

The U.S. Air Force is in dire straits, an organization in crisis by any measure. The warning signs are shocking:

- In 2002 it mismanaged the KC-X competition resulting in a senior acquisitions official going to jail.

- The CSARX rescue helicopter competition, delayed for over two years, is still mired in political and legal battles.

- The service cut almost 15% of its total manpower in order to modernize equipment, only to end up with a smaller force and little modernization. 

- Another high ranking acquisitions official committed suicide over another brewing scandal.

- The Air Force unknowingly loaded nuclear weapons on a bomber and flew it across the country.

- It lost track of other nuclear components, mistakenly sending them to Taiwan.  

- The service can only buy half the F-22s it needs to fulfill its stated requirements.

- Recently, the chief of staff and secretary of the Air Forces were sacked, the first time in history the two top positions in a military service were simultaneously fired.

- It lost track of another 1000 nuclear weapons components.

- Now, it botched up the new aerial tanker contract again.

From 1990 to 2012 the service squandered its only opportunity to modernize. It’s facing the same looming budget disaster as the rest of the nation. Starting in 2012 Social Security and Medicare will start sucking the federal budget dry, closing the door on major force modernization. Between entitlements and endless wars the service will find it nearly impossible to build the 21^st century force it so desperately needs. They are in hole they may not be able to climb out of.

Was it strictly the services fault? No, but most of the blame falls squarely in their lap. How did it come to this?

Lack of Strategic Thinking. The service rewards tactical thinking, focusing only one or two budget cycles in the future.

Lack of Common Identity. There is no common cultural lynchpin which binds all Airmen the way the other services are unified. The Air Force has a fractured culture for two reasons: it’s a service of ‘program managers,’ stove-piped into specific career fields and weapons systems; and because most ‘Airmen’ have nothing to do with aviation.

The service lost control to a self-serving bureaucracy. The Air Force’s requirements and acquisitions system serves congress and their lobbyist. It serves the contractors. It serves the armies of civil servants in Washington and the Pentagon. The system serves everyone except the warfighters in the field and therefore, in the long run truly serves the interest of our adversaries. Our ‘peer rivals’ only need to wait us out as the bureaucracy does nothing and our fleet rots. 

The Air Force has become a service of stewards, not innovators. With few exceptions, the service no longer blazes new aviation trails. The few new programs in existence were started many years ago and many of those are in trouble. It’s not just a question of funding, but of cultural willingness to take risks.

Lack of combat aviation leadership. Deployments and combat are not the same, this distinction is blurred in the service. Fewer and fewer people running the show and pulling the levers of power are combat veterans, let alone combat aviators. Being combat aircrew actually hinders one’s chances of advancement – they are just too busy to ‘fill the squares.’ Why is this important? Combat aviators approach problems with a purpose driven perspective. Many bureaucrats running the service today are process driven and don’t understand those flying the front lines. Basic aviation concepts, from the way aircrew solve problems to fight battles, are alien to most Airmen.

Rampant Careerism. Way too many officers are too concerned with punching a ticket and moving on. Innovation and change require courage to make mistakes. Mistakes kill careers. Therefore, most play it safe, move on, and move up. Challenging times call for big, bold decisions. Instead, our staffs are filled with bureaucrats tending aging fleets and floundering programs. 

I am beginning to doubt the US Air Force can endure as a separate military service.

These are tough words, but these are tough times.