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The New General Motors (Revisted)

It looks like Mr. Carofano from the Heritage Foundation came to the same conclusion I did. His piece "Will the Armed Forces Fail Next?" echos the same theme as my blog entry "The New General Motors." Both are good reading, check them out.
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The New General Motors

 

I was an Air Force brat in the 1970’s, a sergeant’s son. We lived in a mobile home tucked away in a tidy trailer park on Wright Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio. I remember fondly those mild summers; barbequing, listening to the Reds on an AM transistor radio, and watching Jaws and Star Wars at the base theater. Summer was also the time my mom’s relatives came visiting.

They hailed from near Detroit; a loud and boisterous cast of aunts, uncles, and cousins. Staunch union Democrats all, mom’s clan was tied to the auto industry since my grandfather, an Arkansas hillbilly, moved to Detroit during the Depression. He was the first of four generations of Detroit autoworkers. 

Their life in Michigan was a stark contrast to our lives on a military base. My dad often worked 12 to 18 hours a day in a busy control tower, while my aunts and uncles seemed to have time on their hands. My dad deployed overseas, often a year at a time, and never complained. At the summer get-togethers my aunts and uncles sat around drinking beer and griped about the lousy pay and hours on the assembly line. Our family drove a used car and made do, while my Michigan relatives were never quite satisfied with their employee discounted new cars. As a child I couldn’t understand why they weren’t happy with what they had. Looking back as an adult I know why.

They saw a good paying union job not as a privilege, but an entitlement. The auto industry was a fact of life; an eternal and unmoving colossus. Through them I learned hubris isn’t the sole domain of the white collar worker. That hubris blinded workers and management alike as the seeds were being planted for Detroit’s eventual undoing.  

1972 Toyota CorollaAt one Fourth of July reunion I remember my uncle scoffing at a little Toyota as it puttered by amongst giant Oldsmobiles and Buicks. He cursed the little car. “Rice burner” he laughed and took another swig of Pabst Blue Ribbon. How dare this little car challenge America’s auto industry, the symbol of her might! My dad, just back from Vietnam, remained silent. I think, deep down, he knew the world had already changed.

Detroit didn’t change, and that’s why it died. They wouldn’t, or couldn’t, change their labor practices in the face of the global marketplace. They didn’t heed the warnings of half a dozen energy shocks since 1972 and produce energy efficient cars. Now, the Big Three automakers teeter on the brink of extinction, their good paying union jobs are almost gone, and Detroit is only a shell of the great city it once was.  There is no hubris left in Michigan, only fear. America’s indigenous auto industry will most likely pass into history before our eyes.

Two years ago I worked at a military logistics hub in middle Georgia. The base is a massive installation and the biggest employer in the state. Only a handful of the roughly 25,000 people working there actually wear a military uniform, the rest are government civilians and contractors.  It is a one industry town. I’ve seen many towns like it, survivors of numerous base realignment and closing (BRAC) rounds over the past 15 years. These fortunate military installations, through fate or strong congressional representation, grew and became economic lynchpins for the local communities.

On a humid evening several summers ago in that Middle Georgia town I sat in the bleachers watching my kid’s little league game. I was surrounded by families who depended solely on the defense industry for their livelihoods. The latest BRAC was the topic of conversation. These parents were third and fourth generation employees at the base. In their idle talk I heard the same assumptions, “…the base would always be here,” and “…I can always get a job on base if I can’t make it anywhere else,” and “…our congressman won’t let them close this base, it’s too important.” In them I saw traces of the same hubris my uncles and aunts exhibited all those years ago. The military depot and        it’s good paying government job wasn’t a privilege, it was an entitlement. These people saw the base as a fact of life, an unmoving colossus which would be there forever.

I didn’t know it then, but I believe I was witnessing the rise of a new General Motors - the US Defense Department.

These good people from Georgia were employed by a monolithic industry at the peak of its power, but not changing with the times. The parents in the stands watching their kid's play ball repaired the same aircraft their grandfathers originally built. Other than the Chinese-made computers atop their cubicle desks, little had changed at this base since Reagan was president. And little would change.

Like the Big Three automakers, defense has been inefficient for years. Massive government unions hold sway, ensuring change comes slowly, if at all. Instead of pumping money into new weapon systems, billions are being spent maintaining the status quo. And the status quo works just fine until the rules change. The rules changed quickly and mercilessly for Detroit. The same is happening to the defense establishment. 

First, federal social spending and national debt are beginning to starve the military of the resources it needs to carry out its missions and trillions in bailouts are accelerating the process. Second, the Pentagon’s bloated bureaucracy isn’t helping as it robs the services of the nimbleness they need to adapt and change. This fact has had its most devastating impact on weapons acquisition. Third, the Pentagon’s reliance on contractors puts it at the mercy of many who don’t have America’s best interests at heart. Fourth, congress’s political machinations exacerbate the damage inflicted by all the other factors. And like Japanese car companies of the 1970s, our military competitors see us sowing the seeds of our own demise and are working to accelerate the process. They know our military is the last symbol of America’s remaining might.

Like General Motors all those years ago, the seeds of our future woes are already planted in fertile soil.  
Department of Defense Seal (Color).
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Backed By Steel


 

Here’s an economics lesson for the American serviceman. Reach into your pocket and pull out a dollar bill. Its value isn’t set by gold or any precious metal, only law and world currency markets determine its worth. Why, then, would someone buy mere paper not backed by a tangible asset? For the same reason you might buy stock in a company. Foreigners buy our dollars because they know America has the greatest return on investment of any endeavor in history.

Historically, America is where the world’s smart money runs in troubled times. But now America finds itself in hard times. No longer a manufacturing giant, we’re now a consumer economy shouldering crippling public and private debt. The US is hemorrhaging trillions in real estate and corporate wealth while embroiled in two expensive wars. A 2007 BBC survey found America’s standing abroad ranking only above Israel, North Korea and Iran. With all this gloom, does the world’s smart money still consider America a safe bet?

Absolutely, and the US serviceman has something to do with it.

Since the early 1990s America led the way building the post-Cold War global economy, an international free trade system. For better or worse, the United States is the lynchpin holding it all together. When the world buys our dollars and debt they essentially cast a vote of confidence not only in America, but the global economic system we helped establish. This is true, even during the current crisis, due in large part to the US military.

Defense critics point out the US spends more on defense than the next 14 nations combined. True, but we also directly or indirectly protect those 14 nations’ access to international trade. From Bangkok to Baghdad, international merchants know goods and services flow unhindered because of US military power. This arrangement benefits our friends and rivals alike. China, the world’s manufacturing superpower, exported $1.2 trillion in goods last year, but China doesn’t protect the international trade routes on which she so strongly depends. Nor is it African ships leading the charge against pirates off Somalia or OPEC armies guaranteeing the flow of oil through the volatile Persian Gulf region. It’s the American fighting man and woman who keep global trade free.

Foreign nations may rail against US military power in public, but privately they vote with their money. They understand two important facts: our forces operate with immense restraint and in strict adherence to law; and no international coalition can yet match America’s military prowess. Would China act with our humanity and restraint? Can the U.N. match our decisiveness and competence should they become protectors of the global economy? This is why, rhetoric aside, the world trusts us to protect the global market.

For this reason our leaders must tread carefully. Recently, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass) called for a 25% cut in the defense budget. One lesson the financial crisis taught us is risk assumed by one global player is risk assumed by all. If America can’t or won’t protect the global trade system our national stock will surely go down. Investors will take their money elsewhere and other nations will fill the power vacuum we leave behind. What will our dollars and debt be worth then?

The 21stcentury US Military isn’t just protecting our homeland or hunting down terrorists, but ensuring the global economy remains free.  If you’re an American serviceman reading this, you truly hold that dollar in your hands. It isn’t backed by gold...

...It’s backed by steel. 

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