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Smoke and Mirrors in Defense Budget

According to CQ.com the Pentagon wants $450 billion in more spending over the next five years:

The new estimate, which has not been publicly released, would raise the fiscal 2010 budget number announced by the administration this year from $527 billion to $584 billion, not counting operations costs for the ongoing wars. 

Experts note that releasing such documents in the twilight of an administration is a well-worn tactic, and that incoming presidents often disregard such guidance in order to pursue their own priorities…

But the numbers also seem to contradict the National Defense Strategy released recently by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, which called for tough tradeoffs in spending in an environment of limited resources…

The numbers also contradict reality. America is hemorrhaging wealth and the tax base will not support increased federal spending – defense or otherwise. The only way to raise new revenue is to borrow it or print it. Either option is bad news for inflation, interest rates and jobs.

I fully stand by my analysis Pentagon planners are most likely conducting serious budget cutting drills in expectations of massive roll-backs in discretionary spending in next budget cycle. My assessment is backed up by a 9 October Miami Herald news story:

With the U.S. economy in crisis and military spending at its highest level since World War II, military officials and experts are worrying that America may have to start reining in defense spending…

Eight years of borrowing to pay for the Iraq and Afghan wars, coupled with an aging baby boomer population, growing healthcare costs and a push to enlarge the Army could force legislators to make tough decisions about which needs should take priority, and the next president to reassess how much the military can do…Congress' decision earlier this month to approve a $700 billon bailout for the financial industry adds to the strain on the federal budget, and the stock market decline and the credit crunch could slow economic activity and eliminate jobs, which in turn could reduce tax revenues.

Pay close attention to the sentence “push to enlarge the Army.” If they Army adds 30,000 soldiers over the next 24 months as originally planned I believe the Pentagon will slice portions of the Air Force and Navy to pay for it. The only other place to find additional cash is medical and retirement benefits…and congress won’t let that happen

Air Force modernization and re-capitalization is about to come to a sudden and brutal halt.  

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