Posted by
Bull 67 on Thursday, October 01, 2009 1:34:28 PM
According to this morning’s New York Times, Vice President Biden favors this approach to Afghanistan:
...Rather than try to protect the Afghan population from the Taliban, American forces would concentrate on eliminating the Qaeda leadership, primarily in Pakistan, using Special Operations forces, Predator missile strikes and other surgical tactics. The Americans would also accelerate training of Afghan forces and provide support as they took the lead against the Taliban.
This counterterrorism strategy, as opposed to a counterinsurgency strategy, is predicated on the theory that the real threat to American national security lies in Pakistan, not Afghanistan. Some call this proposal the “Pakistan First” option.
Vice President Biden is advocates isolating Afghanistan, monitoring and striking from above using drones, and sending in special operations teams when needed to kill or capture terrorists. I don’t think “Pakistan First” is appropriate, and prefer dubbing it the “Escape from New York” (or maybe the “Escape from Afghanistan”) strategy.
Escape from New York, the 1981 motion picture starring Kurt Russell, is the story of a future where crime is out of control. The government, unable to cope with the situation, isolates Manhattan Island as a prison for America’s criminals. The inmates are free to roam at will within the city, but automated security systems kill anyone trying to escape. Contingency special operations teams are on standby for “surgical strikes”. In the movie, Air Force One crashes in the city and the special teams are powerless to save the president. The government must send in Snake Plisken (Kurt Russell), a rouge special operations soldier sentenced to death, to save him.
First, this isn’t Biden’s strategy. They’re calling it “Biden’s Strategy” so, when it fails it won’t taint the president. And it will fail. This plan is fundamentally flawed in every aspect.
Biden is not a military strategists. General McCrystal is, and knows what needs to be done: boots on the ground, territory secured, friends protected, and enemies killed. The only plausible objective is to deny Afghanistan as a base and breeding ground for terrorists and insurgents.
McCrystal also understands the Afghan government and military will always be corrupt. We need to work within this reality and we’ can’t do this remotely.
The Taliban and Al Qaeda are fighting a total war. If we continue to fight a limited war we will lose. It doesn’t matter how good our special ops teams are, how many drones we have buzzing over the country, nor how much we try to reform the Afghan government. The enemy will ruthlessly adapt and overcome whatever we throw at them. On the contrary, bad guys can’t adapt if they are dead. The dead can’t recruit new members.
The Biden Strategy is a double whammy of failure. Not only does it essential cede the ground to the enemy, it’s cornerstone of containment is ludicrous. One cannot contain Afghanistan. It’s the worst possible terrain on the planet for a containment strategy.
A writer once said “Afghanistan is the land of a thousand Alamos”. When they build a house or settlement, the very first structure is always the wall. They are born with a siege mentality. If we build a virtual wall around them they won’t even notice. Their mountains are walls, and they have no problem scaling them. We will be unable to keep them in or keep them out. The terrorists will move through our containment like a sieve and spread across the world like a plague.
Finally, relying on Pakistan to route out Taliban and Al Qaeda in the Waristan region has been, and will continue to be, a failure. This is for the same reasons the Northern Alliance let the Taliban and Al Qaeda slip away in the early days of the conflict: local political needs, corruption, and tribal blood. In the end, it will be America’s responsibility alone to kill our own enemies. You can’t outsource victory.
No, Snake Plisken can’t save the day for us. It’s going to take real soldiers and Marines, in every village, in every city, in ever mountain pass. We will have to chase them into Pakistan. We will have to chase them to hell, if necessary.
Unfortunately, the administration’s “Escape from Afghanistan Doctrine” is really just that...escape.