Posted by
Bull 67 on Sunday, April 05, 2009 7:47:34 PM
By this time tomorrow the media will be dissecting the proposed 2010 defense budget. Secretary Gates is slated to release some details of the $513 billion dollar Pentagon budget on 6 April. Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Friday the recommendations for defense budget "aren't changes on the margins. It is a fundamental shift in direction."
With that, I think it’s a good time to review some of the predictions I made since last fall:
1. Some defense spending will remain strong, even as the budget shrinks. This will only be for certain mature programs and only in key Democratic districts.
2. Big programs, small programs, nothing will be sacred. Expect early retirement for various weapon systems. This will not impact democratic districts. Don’t hold your breath on a new rescue helicopter unless the HH-47 wins. Parts of it are made in Murtha’s state of PA.
3. Rep. Barney Frank’s comment about a 25% cut in overall defense spending will come true, but not in the baseline budget. Expect the wartime supplemental spending to plummet as troops come home from Iraq.
Some new predictions:
1. Obama’s cuts will hurt defense companies. Watch for Congress to follow with a nationalization plan. Many companies will go willingly.
2. Keep you eye out for more cuts to personnel programs. Obama’s attempt to cut VA funding by shifting $500 million in service-related medical costs to private insurance took me by surprise. I expected him to increase personnel benefits for military to lure away DoD voters from the Republicans. Therefore, it may be the Dems have written off military as permanently political adversaries.
3. Once congress gets a hold of the budget some pork will be added back in, but the administration must get its defense cuts in during the next two years. After that, the election cycle will begin anew and he’ll have to move back to the center to get reelected. He'll be counting America’s short memories.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow.