Posted by
Bull 67 on Sunday, September 21, 2008 11:06:39 PM
I’m interrupting the series ‘Fixing the Air Force’ because I fear recent events may have made fixing the US Air Force an almost impossible task. The World has changed. I think what we saw this week was a bigger event in America’s history than 9/11. It will have even greater consequences which must be addressed. The following are the author's opinions only.
Last week the US Government absorbed almost a trillion dollars of the most noxious corporate debt imaginable. To put it in perspective, the government has an annual operating budget of about three trillion dollars and only takes in about 2.7 trillion in revenue. This new debt is equivalent to almost three annual defense budgets! Overnight, the US federal debt leapt by at least a ten percent. Whatever budget estimates and expectations Pentagon leadership had up to this point can be thrown out. It’s a new fiscal ball game.
In my article, “Entitlements Threaten Defense Spending” (Townhall Magazine, September 2008) I likened entitlement spending, like Medicare, to a tsunami of red ink poised to crush the defense budget. With this week’s unprecedented corporate bailout packages our nation effectively ran out to meet that giant wave. If the republic is to survive something will have to give.
That something will be defense, the biggest slice of the non-discretionary federal budget. Congress and the next president will have to cut federal spending in order to service this new debt. If they don’t, they risk potentially destroying America’s currency and credit rating – bad, very bad.
I’m about to make some predictions regarding the impact this financial crisis will have on defense spending. Print this blog, put it in safe place, then pull it out and read it in a year. You'll see much of this will have come to pass or be in the works.
America’s biggest defense contractors know this spells doom for defense spending. This weekend and over the next month they’ll send their high-powered lobbyist to gain assurances from their pet senators and congressmen that their key programs will remain safe from any future cuts. Our legislators will try to put on their best face and tell them all is well. All the while they’ll quietly send their staffers to the Pentagon.
Those staffers will tell the Pentagon budget planners (those working on something called the ‘POM’) to start planning deep cuts. They’ll give these planners draconian bottom lines and tell them to meet them - period. The planners will start a series of budget drills and the real fun begins.
Over the next few months rumors of the deep budget cuts will seep outside the Pentagon. Small programs, big programs – nothing will be sacred. The defense budget will be so different next year it as to be almost unrecognizable.
The Air Force will get hit hardest since it’s currently the least favored branch among the political elites. Since the new aerial tanker was punted to the next administration it’s uniquely vulnerable. I believe by this time next year it will be on indefinite hold and some token funds will be thrown at the old KC-135 to extend its life a few more years. Don’t hold your breath on a new replacement rescue helicopter. I believe that program is doomed now. Expect early retirement for various weapons systems those with high operating costs, perhaps like the B-1 bomber.
I cannot speak to the specifics of the other services, but they’ll get hit hard, too. Even the Army and the Marines, the most engaged in combat operations, will feel the heat. It won’t just be weapons acquisition programs, either. Personnel program cuts will be close behind.
I’m not talking about tweaks in the system, but sudden and draconian cuts. It will start with pronouncements on cutting travel costs. Then they’ll cut medical costs in new and painful ways. Tricare will eventually pay pennies on the dollar as co-pays for dependant medical care skyrockets. There will be drastic rollbacks in retiree medical benefits and huge shake-ups of the retirement system itself. Then the real cuts will begin.
The Navy and Air Force will resume their downward force cuts to unprecedented levels, perhaps in the range of 250,000 for each service. The additional forces added to the Marines and Army since 2003 will be rescinded. There may even be serious consideration of consolidating the services. I believe in 3-5 years we’ll find the military 25% smaller…at least.
With all these force cuts, how will we fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?
We won’t. With this new, staggering debt load members of both political parties will accelerate our departure from Iraq and even Afghanistan, regardless of the political and military consequences. Only a token naval and air power component will remain in the Gulf Region to protect the oil. Expect withdrawal of forces from most of the Pacific and Europe as well.
In five years the US military will operate on a budget of under $300 billion and have less than 900,000 in uniform with the savings going to service the interest on national debt. I do not exaggerate when I believe this week spells the collapse of the US military as we know it and the end of Pax American.
'This is crazy talk,' you say. Maybe. I’m just some guy on the internet with a blog, what do I know? Yea, I’m probably wrong. Please, Lord in Heaven, let me be wrong.